Africa should be viewed not as a replacement for Middle Eastern crude but as a supplementary source that can help South Korea diversify risk in its oil import structure, according to a recent report released by the state-run Institute for National Security Strategy.
The report said African crude could serve as a practical option linking short-term crisis response with longer-term efforts to improve the resilience of South Korea’s import structure, as concerns grow over disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
The comments from INSS researcher Kim Yun-hee come as the US-Israel war on Iran continues to disrupt global energy markets, and recent high-level talks between Washington and Tehran fail to produce a breakthrough.
In a report released Friday titled “US-Iran War and Oil Supply Instability: Can Africa Be an Alternative?” INSS noted that South Korea’s oil supply structure remains heavily concentrated in the Middle East, leaving it vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.
As instability in the region intensifies, the risk has shifted beyond price volatility to what Kim described as a “physical supply risk,” where securing actual volumes of crude becomes increasingly uncertain.
In this context, major African oil producers — including Nigeria, Libya, Angola and Algeria — are drawing attention as potential supplementary suppliers with available production and export capacity.
West African crude, in particular, is considered advantageous due to its light, low-sulfur characteristics, which enhance refining efficiency. Shipments can also bypass the Strait of Hormuz, offering a strategic benefit in terms of mitigating geopolitical risks.
However, Kim cautioned against viewing Africa as a full-fledged substitute for Middle Eastern oil.
Many Africa-based producers face persistent political and security instability, which can lead to disruptions such as pipeline damage and facility shutdowns. Structural constraints, including underdeveloped port and pipeline infrastructure, frequently hinder production and exports.
Competition from major buyers such as China, Europe and India further complicates efforts to secure stable supply.
“Rather than seeking to replace Middle Eastern crude by shifting supply regions entirely, a more effective strategy would be to diversify sources and distribute supply risks across multiple regions,” Kim said.
In the short term, she suggested expanding the flexible use of strategic petroleum reserves, increasing spot purchases of non-Middle Eastern crude, and providing support for shipping and insurance to cushion supply shocks.
Financial and tax incentives may also be needed to support companies utilizing alternative shipping routes in case of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Over the medium to long term, Kim emphasized the need for a structural approach — including upstream investments in select African producers and expanded cooperation on export infrastructure such as ports — to enhance supply stability while diversifying both supply sources and transport routes.
mkjung@heraldcorp.com
