The impending leadership changes in South Korea and the United States have cast a cloud of uncertainty over the future of Seoul-Washington relations. With President Trump set to be sworn in Monday and the potential confirmation of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment in South Korea, the stage is set for significant political and diplomatic shifts. If a liberal administration takes power in Seoul, a likely backlash against Yoon’s conservative policies, the relatively warm relationship between Yoon and outgoing US President Biden based on shared values of democracy and freedom could become a relic of the past.

Under Trump’s “America First” doctrine, the value-driven alliance championed by Yoon and Biden would likely take a backseat to a transactional approach. Trump’s history shows little regard for shared democratic values or long-standing alliances when they conflict with his vision of US national interests. His treatment of Canada, one of America’s closest allies, illustrates this approach: imposing high tariffs and making inflammatory remarks about Canada as the 51st state of the US that strained bilateral relations. Trump’s constant attacks on Mexico and Western European countries, also key US partners or allies, on the issues of immigration, tariffs and defense costs, further prove this point.

Adding to the uncertainty is Trump’s contentious history with South Korea’s liberal governments. During his first term, Trump reportedly viewed Seoul as an unreliable partner on North Korea, according to former National Security Advisor John Bolton’s memoir, "The Room Where It Happened." Bolton reveals that Trump distrusted then-President Moon Jae-in, suspecting his agenda prioritized inter-Korean unification over the denuclearization objectives shared by Washington. Trump’s suspicion deepened during high-profile summits with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, where Seoul’s reassurances about Pyongyang’s intentions proved unfounded.

For example, at the 2018 Singapore summit, Trump rejected Moon’s proposal for a trilateral meeting to keep the focus solely on US-North Korea negotiations. At the 2019 Hanoi summit in Vietnam, Trump abruptly walked out, frustrated by Kim’s refusal to commit to full denuclearization despite Seoul’s optimistic framing. These experiences have left Trump wary of South Korea’s liberal leaders, complicating the potential for future cooperation.

The challenges don’t end there. If a liberal government emerges in Seoul, its likely conciliatory stance toward China could clash with Trump’s anti-Beijing policies. Tensions have already surfaced, as seen in recent criticism by Korean American Congresswoman Young Kim. She condemned South Korea’s liberal parties for allegedly undermining the Seoul-Washington alliance and trilateral cooperation with Tokyo, citing impeachment efforts against Yoon that initially criticized his foreign policy as too confrontational toward China and Russia and too reconciliatory toward Japan. Although the Democratic Party and other opposition parties that pushed for Yoon’s impeachment later dropped the controversial passage about Yoon’s foreign policy from their impeachment resolution, the case clearly indicates potential tensions between Trump and a new liberal government in Seoul.

Efforts by a new liberal administration in Seoul to revive US-North Korea talks would also face significant hurdles. Inter-Korean reconciliation hinges on US-North Korea rapprochement, yet prospects for another Trump-Kim summit appear dim. Kim Jong-un is unlikely to risk another humiliating experience like the Hanoi summit, where Trump walked away from a deal due to Pyongyang’s refusal to fully denuclearize.

One area where Trump’s policy might align with Pyongyang’s interests is his skepticism about US-South Korea military exercises. During his first term, Trump reduced joint drills, citing their expense and provocativeness. He also questioned the necessity of maintaining 28,000 US troops in South Korea, considering troop reductions or using the threat of withdrawal as leverage in defense cost-sharing negotiations.

Another risk factor for South Korea is that Trump will be too preoccupied with conflicts in other regions. The war in Ukraine and the Palestine situation will distract Trump at least during the first part of his presidency, leaving little room for his interests in the Korean Peninsula. Unlike his first term, Trump’s second term might mean indifference and inaction when it comes to the Korean issue. In the meantime, North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs will continue to advance, posing much greater threats to the region.

For South Korea, the next four years under Trump could bring heightened risks and challenges. Trump’s transactional approach to alliances might demand greater financial contributions from Seoul while offering diminished security commitments. His disregard for the strategic importance of South Korea in the Asia-Pacific could weaken the US-South Korea alliance at a time when regional tensions with China and North Korea are intensifying.

Ultimately, South Korea’s position as a key strategic asset for US security in the region should ensure its importance in Washington’s broader policy framework. However, Trump’s history suggests he may be one of the few who fails to recognize its significance. This miscalculation could have profound implications for the stability and security of the Korean Peninsula and the wider region.

Lee Byung-jong

Lee Byung-jong is a former Seoul correspondent for Newsweek, The Associated Press and Bloomberg News. He is a professor at the School of Global Service at Sookmyung Women’s University in Seoul. The views expressed here are the writer’s own. -- Ed.