Although it is difficult to assess how likely this may be, reports have emerged that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Earlier this year, at the Davos Forum, he emphasized solidarity among middle powers in response to the Trump administration's coercive tariffs and annexationist pressure, while advocating a rules-based, multilateral international order. Participants responded to his speech with thunderous applause, and he subsequently emerged as a superstar on the international stage. He did not stop at rhetoric. He also showed the courage to respond to US retaliatory tariffs with tariffs of his own and established closer diplomatic relations with several countries, including the European Union.
Let us imagine, for a moment, that Prime Minister Carney actually wins the Nobel Peace Prize. Such an outcome would be a humiliating blow to US President Donald Trump, the leader of Canada's neighboring country. Trump has hoped to receive the Nobel Peace Prize while pressuring a smaller neighbor in pursuit of his own national interests. Indeed, he was delighted to receive what amounted to a hastily created FIFA Peace Prize. If Carney were to receive the Nobel Peace Prize, Trump and his supporters would undoubtedly be disappointed, while many countries and people around the world would likely celebrate. The reaction would be especially strong in smaller countries that have long suffered from the bullying behavior of great powers.
Strictly speaking, however, Carney's chances of receiving the Nobel Prize are not particularly high. The Norwegian Nobel Committee places considerable importance on "demonstrable and sustained results." Carney has been in office for a little over a year and a half, and his record remains limited. That does not mean the possibility is entirely out of the question. US President Barack Obama received the prize soon after taking office, while the European Union was awarded the prize amid the debt and migration crises. The Nobel Committee considers not only past achievements but also future potential — and, above all, whether the award might strengthen a recipient's future efforts.
In this regard, we must consider the prospects and future direction of Carney's proposed coalition of middle powers. More specifically, he has called for a coalition of "like-minded countries" — countries such as Canada that embrace liberal democracy and a market economy while defending a rules-based international order grounded in multilateralism. South Korea, Japan, Germany, Australia and the Nordic countries could also be included. Interestingly, most of these countries are US allies or security partners, yet they have also faced various forms of pressure from Trump, including threatening tariffs, demands for increased defense spending and territorial ambitions.
South Korea and Japan have been asked to make huge investments as a condition for tariff reductions. Last week, Trump unilaterally announced a massive $50 billion Alaska LNG investment project to be paid by South Korea, despite the absence of an agreement with the Korean government. Although the issue has quieted somewhat, he had previously sought to back Seoul into a corner by demanding that it deploy forces to the Strait of Hormuz. During his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, he also embarrassed the Japanese government by invoking Japan's wartime history and emphasizing that the United States and China had fought together against Japan during World War II. He has also pressured Denmark to relinquish Greenland.
In a sense, these countries can be described as "like-minded" not only because they share similar political and economic systems, but also because they are collectively facing unilateral pressure from the United States. Prime Minister Carney delivered a sharp warning on this point at the Davos Forum: If these countries cannot secure a seat at the table where international issues are discussed, they will end up on the menu — as the prey of great powers.
The question, then, is whether these countries, which share a common experience of hardship, can form their own alliance or coalition in opposition to the United States and other great powers. Carney may entertain such an appealing vision, but reality is more complicated. Most of these countries remain deeply dependent on the United States for security and maintain close economic relations with China, making it difficult to escape the influence of either power. As in the delicate relationship between South Korea and Japan, complex and overlapping interests also exist among these countries themselves.
What, then, would be a realistic alternative? A comprehensive and permanent organization covering the economy, trade, diplomacy and social affairs, along the lines of the European Union, would be unrealistic. Instead, smaller multilateral groups or networks organized around specific issues could be considered. Potential areas of cooperation include technology, critical minerals, maritime security, economic resilience and support for international institutions — niche areas well suited to middle-power diplomacy. Cooperation would also be possible in nontraditional security fields such as refugee issues, climate change, disease and poverty.
Of course, even this would not be easy. The United States and other great powers would almost certainly regard such efforts as challenges to their dominance and attempt to obstruct them. Nevertheless, these countries would have strong incentives to cooperate. Such cooperation could help preserve a multilateral international order, diversify supply chains and reduce dependence on great-power pressure. As the development of the European Union demonstrates, cooperation could begin narrowly and modestly before gradually expanding into broader and deeper relationships.
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Lee Byung-jong
Lee Byung-jong is a former Seoul correspondent for Newsweek, The Associated Press and Bloomberg News. He is a professor at the School of Global Service at Sookmyung Women’s University in Seoul. The views expressed here are the writer’s own. — Ed.
khnews@heraldcorp.com
