Much of Germany went to bed on Sept. 6 worried as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) scored a sweeping victory in Saxony-Anhalt's state election. The party won nearly 44 percent of the vote but came three seats short of winning control of the state parliament. Support for the mainstream conservative Christian Democratic Union of Germany, buffeted by the low approval ratings of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, fell by more than half.
It remains unclear whether the AfD will be able to form a government. Established parties have ruled out joining a coalition with the AfD. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a recently formed left-wing populist party, won five seats and has hinted that it could work with the AfD. The two parties share skepticism of immigration and of military aid to Ukraine, along with anti-establishment appeal.
For Germany, the election raises doubts about the political future of Merz’s government and the viability of centrist politics. It also tests the longstanding political firewall against the far right. The possibility of an eventual sharp right turn in Germany stirs questions across Europe about the future of the European Union because the AfD has flirted with calls for Germany to leave the EU. For the rest of the developed world, the election suggests that populist right-wing politics inspired by Brexit and Trump’s election in 2016 has yet to crest after a decade-long run.
The question, then, is where politics in the world’s advanced democracies is headed for the rest of the 2020s. At the end of 2016, conventional wisdom viewed Brexit and Trump as aberrations, or populist spasms, that would soon fade in favor of a restoration of “normal.” For a while, it looked as if that scenario would unfold. In the US in 2020, Donald Trump lost his bid for reelection to centrist Joe Biden. In France in 2022, centrist President Emmanuel Macron won reelection against far-right Marine Le Pen. In the UK in 2024, centrist Keir Starmer led the Labour Party to a landslide victory. All the leaders at the 2024 G7 summit except Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni were mainstream establishment figures committed to the postwar “world order.”
The centrist interlude began to fade quickly after Donald Trump won the US presidency again in November 2024. Since then, centrist leaders have faced strong headwinds. In the UK, dissatisfaction with Starmer’s government fueled the rapid rise of the populist right-wing Reform UK party, and his sinking popularity eventually forced him out of office. Friedrich Merz and Emmanuel Macron have seen their approval ratings slump as well.
Centrist weakness has also benefited the left in places. After ditching Starmer, the Labour Party turned to Andy Burnham, who sits to the left of Starmer. In the US, left-wing candidates in the Democratic Party have won primaries across the country and are competitive in a number of important races in the November midterm elections. If these candidates do well, it could suggest a leftward turn for Democrats heading into the 2028 presidential election.
Centrists have had a few victories amid the rightward and leftward lurches. The two most notable examples are South Korea and Canada. In 2025, South Korea elected Lee Jae-myung, who pivoted toward the pragmatic center, as president after the impeachment and removal of right-wing Yoon Suk Yeol for attempting to impose martial law in December 2024. In local elections in June, the ruling Democratic Party of Korea did well, suggesting that voters remain wary of traditional conservatives, many of whom supported the disgraced Yoon.
In Canada, former Liberal Party Prime Minister Justin Trudeau left office in 2025 with low approval ratings and the Conservatives leading in the polls. President Trump’s threats to annex Canada shocked voters and caused them to rally behind centrist Mark Carney, who led the Liberals to victory. Since becoming prime minister, Carney has taken an assertive stance toward Trump and his hostile rhetoric.
South Korea and Canada differ greatly in political culture, but both have rewarded centrists while other countries have seen the center weaken in favor of extremes. In both countries, existential threat — martial law in one, annexation threats in the other — made extremism look dangerous rather than refreshing. More importantly, both countries sit next to powerful neighbors, and they understand that national unity is not a luxury but a necessity. They know, perhaps more than their democratic peers, what Abraham Lincoln meant when he warned that “a house divided against itself cannot stand.”
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Robert J. Fouser
Robert J. Fouser, a former associate professor of Korean language education at Seoul National University, writes on Korea from Providence, Rhode Island. He can be reached at robertjfouser@gmail.com. The views expressed here are the writer’s own. — Ed.
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