The unusually warm early spring weather has sparked speculation that South Korea could face a long rainy season and extreme heat later this summer, as daytime highs in Seoul climbed to 28 degrees Celsius this week.
The Korea Meteorological Administration dismissed such concerns, saying the recent spike in temperature is a temporary phenomenon caused by overlapping weather factors.
“Current weather conditions are driven by short-term atmospheric pressure patterns and can change through multiple stages depending on various factors,” a KMA official said during a regular briefing Thursday. “It is very difficult to view the current heat as a precursor to overall temperature trends this spring or summer.”
The agency said it is too early to determine whether extreme heat will occur, but estimated a 50 to 60 percent chance that temperatures will remain above average through September.
It also addressed a rumor circulating on social media claiming that the country would see continuous rainfall throughout June, stressing that the claim is not based on any official forecast.
The KMA added that long-term forecasts for the rainy season, which traditionally begins in late June, have been replaced by short-term precipitation outlooks. This shift reflects increasing variability in the seasonal rain front due to climate change, which has weakened the traditional concept of the "changma" rainy period.
The KMA noted that China and Japan have also discontinued long-term monsoon forecasts for Northeast Asia, and said it ended such projections in 2009.
The recent warm conditions were attributed to a high-pressure system to the north and low pressure to the south, bringing clear skies and inducing easterly winds, leading to a "foehn effect," in which moist air loses its moisture on the eastern slopes before warming and drying inland.
With changes expected in the pressure system, temperatures are forecast to ease next week after peaking at around 29 C on Sunday.
From Monday through April 26, daytime highs are expected to range between 17 C and 26 C nationwide, remaining similar to or slightly above the seasonal average of 18 C to 23 C.
forestjs@heraldcorp.com
