[Lee Byung-jong] Is Lee-Trump bromance possible?

Former President Yoon Suk Yeol, now disgraced and awaiting trial for his ill-fated martial law declaration and other charges, may still be remembered in the United States for one surprisingly warm gesture. During his 2023 state visit to the White House, Yoon famously broke into a rendition of "American Pie," the beloved US pop classic. He was no great vocalist, but the effortless way he delivered the English lyrics showed clear preparation. The performance went viral in the US, and for many Americans, it became a quirky but genuine symbol of Yoon’s effort to connect.

Now, with just days to go before his own crucial meeting with US President Donald Trump, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung appears to be preparing in his own way -- by practicing his golf swing. Given Trump’s well-documented love of the game, Lee seems to be betting that time on the fairway could help establish rapport. The strategy is hardly unprecedented: Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe famously used golf to develop a strong personal relationship with Trump during his first term, a dynamic that many believe smoothed Tokyo-Washington relations. Lee may well be hoping to replicate that playbook.

But for Lee, good chemistry with Trump would mean more than just pleasant rounds of golf. The upcoming summit will be a defining moment for his presidency and for South Korea’s place in the world.

On the economic front, the stakes could not be higher. Washington recently announced a 15 percent tariff on Korean exports to the US, tied to conditions that Seoul invest $350 billion in the American economy and purchase $100 billion worth of US energy. The details remain fluid. Trump has also signaled plans to impose a 100 percent tariff on semiconductor imports — a measure that could devastate Korea’s flagship industry — though it is not yet clear whether Korean firms might win exemptions. Much of this will be settled in person, and the results will directly affect how much Korean companies can sell in their largest overseas market.

Security concerns are equally pressing. The Seoul-Washington alliance, now 72 years old, faces a transformed geopolitical landscape. China’s rise, North Korea’s growing hostility and deepening Pyongyang-Moscow military ties all demand a strategic rethink. The alliance must expand its scope from deterring North Korean aggression to countering China’s military presence in the wider region — an adjustment that would reshape the roles and capacities of both US and Korean forces. Another contentious topic will be defense cost-sharing: Trump has repeatedly demanded steep increases to the roughly 1.5 trillion won ($1.08 billion) South Korea currently pays to host 28,000 American troops.

While these decisions will ultimately be driven by national interests and cold calculations, Trump’s track record makes clear that personal rapport plays an outsized role in his foreign policy. Leaders he likes — Abe, and even Kim Jong-un — often find negotiations more fruitful. Those who lose his favor, such as former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, can face protracted and bruising disputes.

In that regard, Lee begins at a disadvantage. His earlier political career included sharp critiques of US foreign policy. He once described the US as an “occupying force” responsible for Korea’s post-liberation division, and during a meeting with a visiting US senator, he pointedly cited the 1905 Taft-Katsura Agreement as a Washington-endorsed prelude to Japanese colonization of Korea. The remark drew accusations of diplomatic impropriety.

Since taking office, however, Lee has worked to shed his perceived anti-American image. He has repeatedly emphasized the centrality of the Seoul-Washington alliance to South Korea’s security and, compared with some liberal predecessors — especially former President Moon Jae-in — he has sought closer ties with the US while maintaining greater distance from China. Relations with Japan, which had improved under Yoon after plunging to historic lows under Moon, have also been a priority for Lee to sustain.

This shift might reflect his embrace of alliances and internationalism, but some of Lee’s closest political allies carry their own history of anti-American activism. His first prime minister, Kim Min-seok, was once convicted for orchestrating a 1985 sit-in at the US cultural center in Seoul, wrongly believing the US had condoned the 1980 Gwangju crackdown. Ruling Democratic Party Chair Jung Chung-rae, a trusted Lee confidant, served four years in prison for his role in a 1989 raid on the US ambassador’s residence in Seoul.

Today, both men, like Lee, publicly affirm their commitment to the alliance, recognizing the decisive role the US plays in South Korea’s trade and security. But their pasts may still color perceptions in Washington, particularly with a president like Trump, who often relies on instinctive judgments of personal loyalty.

For Lee, then, the meeting will be about more than policy; it will be about optics, trust and chemistry. Trump is transactional, but also intensely personal. If he feels camaraderie with Lee, negotiations on tariffs, defense spending and military strategy could move more smoothly. If not, Korea may find itself facing tougher demands and fewer concessions.

Lee Byung-jong

Lee Byung-jong is a former Seoul correspondent for Newsweek, The Associated Press and Bloomberg News. He is a professor at the School of Global Service at Sookmyung Women’s University in Seoul. The views expressed here are the writer’s own. -- Ed.