Is Ahn Cheol-soo effect fizzling?

Recent polls indicated former candidate Ahn Cheol-soo’s star appears waning, adding woes to Democratic United Party nominee Moon Jae-in who put the reluctant ally at the center of his presidential campaign.

With barely 10 days left before the presidential election, Moon is several percentage points behind Saenuri Party’s Park Geun-hye as his anticipation of a poll boost from Ahn’s assistance has yet to materialize fully.

Observers say voter aspirations for political reform championed by the liberal duo has been eclipsed by their fatigue growing with Ahn’s prolonged indecisiveness, his lackluster support for Moon and the seemingly unsettled feuds between them.

But Monday’s TV debate appeared to offer a glimmer of hope for Moon, as he recovered from his lethargic performance in the first presidential TV debate on Dec. 4 Observers said Moon presented his middle-of-road credentials in opposition to both Park and Lee Jung-hee of the minority Unified Progressive Party.

“The fact that I allied with Ahn and his supporters does not necessarily mean that we agree on all of our policies,” Moon said.

“What counts is the 99 percent on which we reached a consensus, and the remaining 1 percent is for the Moon Jae-in government to decide.”

The ruling party has continued to depict their union as a back-door deal to divide power between them.

Ahn said earlier in the day that even if Moon was elected, he would not join the next government.

“I will not take any appointed posts in the next government,” Ahn said during his visit in North Jeolla Province. “For the sake of political reform, it is crucial that one gives up on one’s vested rights.”

Moon is still betting on the Ahn effect to revive his momentum. His camp presented Sunday the final campaign manifesto that embraces Ahn’s vision and measures for political and economic reform.

“Moon and Ahn’s joint declaration on new politics will be implemented by all means,” said Rep. Lee Yong-sup, a co-chief of Moon’s election headquarters.

The DUP accepted Ahn’s proposal to reduce the number of parliamentary seats, a central source of feuds between them.

Ahn also figured prominently in Moon’s latest television advertisement which features the scene last Thursday of both holding hands upon Ahn’s announcement to fully support Moon.

“We are closing in on the gap in the polls with Park Geun-hye,” said Moon’s election strategy chief Rhee Mok-hee in a radio interview on Monday.

“The Ahn Cheol-soo effect is starting and the swing voters are gradually heading back to support Moon.”

Refuting the DUP’s optimistic views, however, the ruling party shrugged off the influence of the former candidate, though it took caution considering the neck-and-neck race.

“Ahn may become a variable (in the election) but the effect does not seem to be so visible,” said Kwon Young-jin, Park’s strategic chief. “We will nevertheless remain humble and do our best until the end.”

The conservative party’s relief was also due to Ahn’s rather passive manner in backing Moon.

In most of the street campaigning, the former candidate remained out of the DUP’s vehicles and spoke without microphones, presumably to avoid disputes with the National Election Commission’s regulations.

Instead, Ahn delivered his message in short sentences and asked the audience to repeat them and to pass them on to those standing further away.

Expert opinions, too, remained divided over the potential leverage of the former candidate.

“(Ahn’s influence) has shown its effect in Busan and South Gyeonsang Province, but not so far in Seoul,” said Yoon Hee-woong, senior analyst at Korea Society Opinion Insitute.

“Considering the dynamic of public sentiment, we will have to keep watch until later this week.”

According to the public election law, organizations are to be banned from announcing new presidential polls from this Thursday.

Shin Yul, professor of politics at Myongji University, made a more positive appraisal.

“Though Ahn’s method may not be effective in communicating with a mass audience, it induces people to focus on his words,” he said.

“This may also be persuasive for the former Ahn supporters as it fits his personal character.”

By Bae Hyun-jung()