Will YouTube-Billboard split hurt K-pop?

As YouTube prepares to stop providing streaming data to Billboard charts beginning Jan. 16, concerns are growing within the K-pop industry over how the change could affect the genre’s chart performance — particularly in the US.

YouTube announced that it will no longer supply streaming data, including views from the YouTube Music app, to Billboard, a move that comes amid disagreements over Billboard’s growing emphasis on paid subscription streams. While Billboard charts factor in multiple metrics — including album sales, radio airplay and streams across platforms — industry insiders widely agree that K-pop is the genre most exposed to the loss of YouTube data.

Since Psy’s “Gangnam Style” in 2013, YouTube views have played a meaningful role in boosting K-pop artists’ visibility on the Billboard charts. Over the past decade, visually driven music videos and highly mobilized global fandoms have allowed K-pop acts to accumulate streaming numbers that often outpace those of US-based artists on YouTube, even when domestic recognition lags.

Although YouTube streams have never been the sole determinant of Billboard rankings, they have carried enough weight to influence chart positions — particularly in tight races.

Industry insiders say that if YouTube data is fully excluded from Billboard’s calculation, a short-term decline in chart rankings for many K-pop acts is likely.

“K-pop artists tend to record disproportionately high YouTube view counts, and that has clearly contributed to their chart performance on Billboard,” said music critic Lim Hee-yun. “We don’t know exactly how much weight YouTube data carries in Billboard’s formula, which makes precise predictions difficult. But even within the US, it’s true that some K-pop acts generate stronger YouTube numbers than local artists despite lower name recognition. In that sense, the change would put K-pop at a disadvantage.”

Lim added that agencies may respond by placing greater emphasis on radio airplay — one of Billboard’s three key metrics, alongside sales and streaming.

“In the end, how often K-pop songs are played on US radio could become a more decisive factor,” Lim said. “But that’s something only one or two major agencies can realistically achieve in the K-pop industry. Companies like Hybe or JYP Entertainment with US subsidiaries, partnerships with American labels or the resources to run large-scale local marketing campaigns will benefit.”

He warned that the shift could widen the gap between major and midsized agencies.

“In the past, even smaller agencies without strong US networks had a chance if they performed well on YouTube from Korea,” Lim said. “That opportunity could shrink. Major agency idols may do even better, while artists from smaller companies may find it harder to compete — leading to greater polarization within the industry.”

For now, most K-pop agencies are taking a wait-and-see approach rather than rushing to adjust their strategies. The actual impact will only become clear after the policy takes effect and chart results begin to reflect the absence of YouTube data.

“We’ll have to wait and see how this change plays out. We need to see how artists’ streaming results turn out,” said an executive at a K-pop agency. “This doesn’t affect only K-pop artists — all global artists are impacted in the same way — so it won’t necessarily put K-pop at a particular disadvantage. That said, it could still affect K-pop artists’ ability to enter the charts.”

Another industry insider said that the effect may vary significantly by artist.

“Until we see concrete results, it’s hard to decide how to respond,” an entertainment official said. “Some artists who already perform well on platforms like Spotify or other global streaming services may not be affected as much. Any counterstrategy will likely depend on the artist’s strengths.”