S. Korea-China-Japan cooperation crucial as ‘buffer’ as Trump 2.0 roils Asia

Trilateral cooperation among South Korea, China and Japan has become more essential than ever as a buffer in Northeast Asia fraught with mounting volatility and uncertainty during US President Trump’s second term, former high-ranking officials and experts said.

Observers from the three countries expressed the view that Northeast Asia has become the central battleground in the intensifying great-power rivalry between the US and China during a forum hosted by the North-East Asia Research Foundation, a Seoul-based think tank, on Monday.

Chung Duck-koo, former minister of trade, industry and energy, underscored that “further strengthening trilateral relations among South Korea, China and Japan would be highly beneficial,” as Northeast Asia sits at the fault line between the North Korea–China–Russia bloc and South Korea–US–Japan cooperation.

“As a group that intersects both triangular frameworks, our cooperation could serve as a bridge for promoting shared prosperity and safety,” Chung, who serves as the founder and incumbent chair of the NEAR Foundation, said in his opening speech during the forum "The Trump 2.0 Era and its Implications on Northeast Asia."

"Such efforts could help ease or neutralize tensions and mitigate sources of conflict in the region."

Kim Sung-han, a former national security adviser in the previous Yoon Suk Yeol administration, underscored that "the geopolitical confrontation between the North Korea–China–Russia alignment and the ROK–US–Japan partnership is likely to intensify further." The ROK stands for the Republic of Korea, the official name of South Korea.

Kim elucidated that the US has been doubling down on its strategic pivot to the Indo-Pacific region from Europe, setting its sights on ending the war in Ukraine, while curtailing its military engagement in the Middle East. At the same time, China is expected to bolster its strategic partnership with Russia while reinvigorating ties with North Korea.

“In this context, trilateral cooperation among the ROK, China and Japan becomes increasingly important to help ease regional tensions and prevent further polarization,” commented Kim, who currently serves as a professor at the Graduate School of International Studies at Korea University.

Kim further explained, “Trump 2.0’s foreign policy is likely to push the Northeast Asian order toward a binary confrontation, which could weaken the strategic foundation for trilateral cooperation among the ROK, China and Japan."

“Paradoxically, however, in the face of rising tensions, pragmatic and interest-based cooperation among those three countries may become even more necessary,” Kim said. “As a result, Korea-China-Japan trilateral cooperation could serve as a ‘diplomatic shock absorber’ that helps ease geopolitical tensions and maintain regional equilibrium.”

In his keynote address, Yun Byung-se, former foreign minister under the Park Geun-hye administration, said, “Dialogue, exchanges and cooperation among South Korea, China and Japan are extremely valuable assets amid the seismic geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts.”

Observers also concurred that the North Korean nuclear challenge underscores the need for tighter South Korea-China-Japan cooperation.

Yun pointed out that “North Korea will negotiate from its most advantageous strategic position since the Korean War” if a summit between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un materializes.

“Depending on the result, another shock may come to the landscape of Northeast Asia,” Yun said. “Prior coordination between South Korea and the US, and among South Korea, the US and Japan, as well as close consultation with China, will be necessary.”

Hitoshi Tanaka, former deputy foreign minister in Japan, also underscored that “especially on pressing issues such as North Korea’s nuclear program, close trilateral coordination is imperative.”

Another key area for trilateral cooperation lies in formulating a joint response to the sweeping tariffs imposed by Trump, while upholding the principle of separating economics from politics.

Chi Fulin, president of the China Institute for Reform and Development, suggested Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo should first step up trade cooperation within the framework of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

"Securing a breakthrough in the China–Japan–Korea Free Trade Agreement negotiations within this year has become a shared imperative for all three countries as they seek to deepen their commitment to free trade," Chi added.

Observers noted this year’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit — to be hosted by South Korea from late October to early November in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang Province — will provide a valuable venue to advance trilateral cooperation.

The APEC summit will invite leaders from 21 countries in the Indo-Pacific region, including South Korea, the US, China, Japan and Taiwan.

“We hope that the leaders of our three countries — South Korea, China and Japan — will also take advantage of this opportunity to engage in meaningful dialogue,” Chung of the NEAR Foundation said.