The Democratic Party of Korea’s presidential candidate, Lee Jae-myung, reversed his slide a week before the election, widening his lead over conservative rival Kim Moon-soo back into double digits, poll results showed Wednesday.
Lee Jae-myung garnered 49.2 percent support, while Kim of the conservative People Power Party received 36.8 percent.
Lee Jun-seok of the minor conservative New Reform Party secured 10.3 percent, according to a poll conducted by local pollster Realmeter on 1,003 eligible voters aged 18 and older from Monday to Tuesday — the final days on which polling was permitted ahead of the June 3 presidential election.
Lee Jae-myung’s approval rating had been on a downward trend since Kim was finalized as the candidate of the People Power Party, marking 50.2 percent, 48.1 percent and 46.6 percent in polls released on May 19, 22 and 24, respectively, by the same company.
By contrast, Kim peaked at 38.6 percent in the May 22 poll, which was conducted after the first televised debate on May 18, but his support has been continuously ebbing since then.
The gap between Lee and Kim during that period narrowed from 14.6 to 9.5 and then to 9 percentage points. However, Wednesday’s poll shows the gap widening again to 12.4 percentage points.
Kim’s approval rate was affected by “both consolidation and division within the conservative camp,” according to Realmeter’s analysis.
“Former Presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye declared their support for him, while figures like Han Dong-hoon called for breaking away from the entrenched pro-Yoon establishment politics, and Lee Jun-seok refused to merge candidacies,” the analysis read.
The poll results indicate some defections among Lee Jun-seok’s supporters in their 20s and among students, with his support having been on an upward trajectory until peaking at 10.4 percent in the poll released on May 24.
Support for Lee Jun-seok among moderate voters was on an upward trend, rising from 12.6 percent to 13.3, 14.6 and 15.1 percent in polls released on May 19, 22, 24 and Wednesday.
During the same period, Lee Jae-myung’s support among middle-of-the-road voters stood at 53.3, 50.4, 48.4 and 50.8 percent, while Kim’s favorability in the moderate bloc recorded 30.0, 30.9, 32.4 and 30.8 percent — reflecting a rebound for Lee and a slight dip for Kim this week.
Observers underscored the importance of Kim’s efforts to appeal to moderate voters.
“We need to clearly understand what moderate voters want and offer a message that resonates with them," said Jung Youn-kuk, former presidential spokesperson for Park and public relations adviser to the People Power Party’s election committee, during an interview with local broadcaster YTN on Wednesday.
Bae Jong-ho, public relations adviser to the Democratic Party’s election committee, said during the same interview, "Rallying the conservative base is a necessary condition, but it's not a sufficient one" for Kim to win the election.
Bae also predicted that Lee Jun-seok’s decision during the last televised presidential debate on Tuesday to refer explicitly to misogynistic and sexually violent online comments allegedly made by Lee Jae-myung's son could have significant consequences.
“While polling will be blacked out during the final stretch of the campaign, this particular remark could cause certain voter groups — especially those in their 20s and 30s, moderates, and women — to turn their backs on him,” Bae said. "If Lee fails to break through the 10 percent barrier at the election in the end, I believe the gaffe could very well lead to a disappointing result."
dagyumji@heraldcorp.com
