S. Korea chose new leader, but the vote shift is subtle

At first glance, South Korea’s political landscape appears to have shifted to the left, with liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung elected president.

But a closer look at the results reveals a nation that remains largely unchanged — still sharply divided along familiar regional and ideological lines, even in an election prompted by the ousting of a conservative administration.

According to the National Election Commission, President Lee secured 49.42 percent of the vote, while conservative runner-up Kim Moon-soo received 41.15 percent. The third-place candidate, Lee Jun-seok — a conservative figure unaffiliated with the mainstream People Power Party — garnered 8.34 percent.

Although a simple addition of vote shares does not account for how voter behavior might have shifted in the event of a campaign merger, the results nonetheless suggest an electorate that remains closely split along ideological lines: Lee’s 49.42 percent versus a combined 49.49 percent for Kim and Lee Jun-seok.

Exit polls — including a joint survey by major broadcasters MBC, KBS and SBS — had projected a more decisive lead for Lee, estimating his support at between 50.6 and 51.7 percent, while placing Kim’s support at below 40 percent.

By region, President Lee and Kim split the country almost exactly in half. Traditional liberal strongholds in the southwest and Jeju Island voted overwhelmingly for Lee, while Kim won the southeastern regions that have long been in conservatives’ pocket. The swing regions split demographically, the North and South Chungcheong provinces, Gyeonggi Province and the capital Seoul chose Lee and Gangwon Province went for Kim.

The two main candidates were relatively close in the swing provinces.

Lee had a lead of 4.3 to 4.4 percentage points in the Chungcheong provinces, while Kim was just 3.3 percentage points ahead of Lee in Gangwon Province. Lee took the most populous city of Seoul 47.1 to 41.6 percent. In Incheon and Gyeonggi Province, which surround the capital, however, Lee won over 50 percent of the voter. Both Lee and Kim had previously served as governor of Gyeonggi Province.

Lee’s support in the region that includes North and South Jeolla provinces plus Gwangju surpassed the 80 percent mark — unsurprising, given its longstanding status as a vote pocket for liberals in past elections.

But Kim's lead in the southeast, which includes North and South Gyeongsang provinces and metropolitan cities there, was less prevalent than support for conservatives in the same region in the past.

Kim got 67.6 percent of the vote in Daegu, 66.9 percent in North Gyeongsang Province, 52 percent in South Gyeongsang and 51.4 percent in Busan. Ulsan was the only southeastern region that recorded under 50 percent for the conservative candidate: Kim beat Lee 47.6 percent to 42.5 percent in the city.

In the 2022 presidential election where Lee faced off against conservative rival and eventual winner Yoon Suk Yeol, Yoon garnered 75.1 percent of the vote in Daegu, 72.8 percent in North Gyeongsang Province, 58.3 percent in Busan, 58.2 percent in South Gyeongsang Province and 54.4 percent in Ulsan.

Dominance in the more populous southeastern region, compared to the southwest, is one of the advantages the conservative bloc had enjoyed in elections. In turn, the southwestern region's support for liberals is usually higher than southeastern region's support for conservatives, which is why most elections tend to be neck-and-neck.

The conservative bloc's less-overwhelming lead in its traditional stronghold can be attributed to ex-President Yoon's much-disputed martial law imposition, which led to his impeachment and ongoing criminal trial. Support for the conservative People Power Party — formerly affiliated with Yoon before he left the party last month — took a hit in the aftermath of the martial law and subsequent impeachment trial.

Exit polls offer the only available data on generational voting patterns. Due to voter secrecy, it is impossible to determine the exact votes each candidate received by age and gender.

According to these polls — which projected Lee to win with 50.6 to 51.5 percent of the vote, a wider margin than the final tally — Lee led Kim in all age groups under 60, while Kim held the advantage among voters aged 60 and older.

Lee's projected lead over Kim ranged from 50.5 percentage points among those in their 40s to 10.4 percentage points among the under-30 group, according to the joint exit polls. Kim was presumed to lead Lee slightly among voters in their 60s — 48.9 to 48 — but to take a commanding lead in the 70-and-above group by garnering 64 percent to Lee's 34 percent.

This was mostly consistent with past election results, where the conservative bloc had generally received more support from older voters. The joint polls for the 2022 election, South Korea's closest presidential race, indicated that Lee received more votes than Yoon in the under-30, 40-something and 50-something groups, but Yoon edged out Lee slightly for those in their 30s and overwhelmed Lee among voters in their 60s and aged 70 and above, by respective margins of 32 percentage points and 41.4 percentage points.

Compared to the previous election, the conservative bloc's lead over liberals in 2025 shrank among those in their 60s and decreased somewhat among those aged at least 70.

In terms of gender, Lee Jae-myung also was indicated as having gotten more votes than Kim from women of all age groups under 60. But while he got the most votes from men between the ages of 30 and 69, the president was outdone by not only Kim, but also minor New Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok among men under the age of 30.

Lee Jun-seok was seen to be leading all candidates by winning 37.2 percent of votes from men under 30, who turned out to be the electoral outlier in this election. While the eventual winner of the race took the lead among men in their 30s with 37.9 percent, Kim and Lee Jun-seok garnered 34.5 percent and 25.8 percent, respectively.

The prevalence of the minor candidate among young men was inconsistent with the general voting pattern, in terms of both age and gender. Eventually winning 8.34 percent of the overall vote total, the New Reform Party candidate was not projected to get more than 5.3 percent from any of the older male groups, or more than 10.3 percent from any female group — topping out with women under 30.

Throughout his campaign, the youngest presidential candidate ever claimed to be an alternate option to the older generation of politics, which may have appealed to younger voters. He has also catered to young men throughout his career by saying they are subject to the adverse discrimination of society, often making comments that were deemed anti-feminist or discriminatory toward women.

He even sparked a major controversy in the last TV presidential candidate debate before the election by his graphic description of a sexually violent act on the air.