North Korea may revoke the Inter-Korean Basic Agreement, which has served as a pivotal foundation for the development of inter-Korean relations and efforts toward peaceful reunification for more than three decades, during its parliamentary session scheduled for next week, the Unification Ministry in Seoul said Wednesday.
The potential action aligns with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's public declaration that the two Koreas are engaged in relations between "two hostile states" locked in a "belligerent state," a stance first articulated during the 2023 year-end plenum and reiterated on several occasions, including at the session of the Supreme People's Assembly on Jan. 15.
North Korean state media announced in mid-September that the next session of the SPA, the regime's rubber-stamp legislature, will convene in Pyongyang on Oct. 7.
"It seems inevitable that (Kim)'s declaration of two hostile states will logically lead to the rejection of the existing Inter-Korean Basic Agreement," a senior official from the Unification Ministry told reporters, speaking on condition of anonymity.
"The likelihood of terminating the agreement now seems quite high," the official added.
The official emphasized that the preamble of the Inter-Korean Basic Agreement acknowledges that inter-Korean relations, "not being a relationship between states, constitute a special interim relationship stemming from the process toward unification," while "pledging to exert joint efforts to achieve peaceful unification."
The two Koreas signed the agreement, officially titled the "Agreement on Reconciliation, Non-Aggression, and Exchanges and Cooperation Between the South and the North," in 1991, and it came into effect in 1992.
North Korea ratified the agreement internally through a session of the Standing Committee of the Supreme People’s Assembly, with final approval granted by then-leader Kim Il-sung.
"If (North Korea) were to annul the agreement, I believe they would likely follow a similar process in reverse," the unnamed official explained.
Hostility enshrined
The Unification Ministry projected that North Korea would solidify its hostile stance toward inter-Korean relations by enshrining it in constitutional amendments at the upcoming parliamentary session.
"North Korea's potential constitutional amendments may involve the removal of references to reunification and fellow countrymen, the introduction of territorial clauses, provisions for territorial expansion during wartime, and the inclusion of education on the No. 1 hostile country," according to the official.
During the SPA session on Jan. 15, Kim Jong-un called for revising the constitution to reflect these points, defining South Korea as the "No. 1 hostile country."
North Korean state media reported that the upcoming SPA session will include discussions on amending and supplementing the Socialist Constitution.
"One key area of interest for us is particularly the constitutional provisions related to territory and their implications for the maritime border," the official said.
Kim notably called for constitutional revisions on Jan. 15, asserting that North Korea's southern border was firmly established and vowing to reject the "illegal Northern Limit Line," which serves as the de facto maritime boundary in the West Sea and is recognized by South Korea.
Message to US
Another key point of the upcoming SPA session is that it will take place less than one month before the US presidential election on Nov. 5.
"North Korea's external strategy likely revolves around the US presidential election. Above all, the country is acutely aware of the election, and North Korea will likely send messages, particularly with the post-US election period in mind," the official said.
The ministry anticipates that North Korea will once again declare itself a nuclear weapons state in a message aimed at the US during the upcoming SPA session.
"Another potential message could be North Korea's emphasis on the Korean Peninsula as a region of territorial disputes and the current severance of inter-Korean relations," the official said.
"North Korea is likely to convey these points to the international community, particularly the United States, with the aim of shaping the post-US election landscape in a way that aligns with its own agenda."
The Unification Ministry also acknowledged the possibility that North Korea may move forward with the ratification process for the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, signed with Russia in June.
"Both countries have yet to finalize their internal procedures, but it seems likely that North Korea will complete its process this time. Once it does, Russia is expected to follow shortly thereafter," the official added.
The official further explained that the Unification Ministry is anticipating the possibility of a reshuffle in North Korea's foreign ministry during the upcoming SPA session, given North Korea's explicitly hostile stance toward inter-Korean relations, its closer alignment with Russia, and the potential evolution of US-North Korea relations following the US presidential election.
