The National Pension Fund will sustain losses beginning in 2044 and be fully depleted by 2060 if its financial structure remains unchanged, a panel under the Welfare Ministry said Thursday.

A finance estimation committee presented the bleak outlook, which was unchanged from its previous report five years ago.

“As society fully reaches an aged society, the National Pension Fund will post a deficit, meaning that it will pay (retired subscribers) more than it collects from (the younger generation) from 2044. The accumulated funds will be exhausted in 2060,” the panel’s chief, Kim Yong-ha, told reporters.

Under the pension law, the committee is required to conduct an estimate of the fund’s finances every five years. In this year’s report, the fund’s depletion date was expected to be pushed back a few years, with an increase in the birth rate from 1.28 per woman to 1.42. A slowing economic growth rate and capital inflow negatively affected the estimate, Kim explained.

The publicly managed pension fund is expected to reach its peak with 2.56 quadrillion won in 2043. Two years from now, the number of subscribers will also peak, at 20.62 million, but shrink to 10.1 million in 2083.

The Ministry of Health and Welfare said it would use the estimate for its pension management plan and submit it to the National Assembly in October.

The report came amid growing fears of the fund’s depletion. The welfare ministry said pension payments would be guaranteed by the government even if the fund ran out by filling the gap with tax revenue.

By Cho Chung-un (christory@heraldcorp.com)