US President Donald Trump’s recent moves toward North Korea — from ordering a reduction in South Korea-US military exercises to publicly claiming that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has responded to his outreach — appear aimed at reopening a channel with Pyongyang.
But analysts say the moves may be about more than North Korea.
His latest remarks point to a broader reassessment of what Washington expects from its allies, experts say. That could place growing pressure on Seoul to contribute beyond the Korean Peninsula, especially when taken with Trump’s renewed complaints about the cost of defending South Korea and his frustration over what he portrayed as Seoul’s reluctance to support US military operations against Iran.
Trump on Tuesday said Kim had responded to his overture for dialogue, though he declined to say when or how the two had communicated.
Asked by a reporter why Kim had not responded to his request for talks, Trump replied, “How do you know he hasn’t responded?”
Pressed on whether Kim had responded, Trump answered, “Yeah, he has.”
He later described the interaction as “very positive.”
The remarks came a day after Trump said he had instructed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to “substantially” reduce joint military exercises with South Korea, according to the US president's Truth Social post.
Trump said the exercises were costly and sent a “totally inappropriate and hostile” signal to North Korea, while again invoking what he called his “very good relationship” with Kim.
Asked whether scaling back the exercises meant he was putting North Korea’s interests ahead of those of South Korea, Trump rejected the suggestion.
“I get along with him (Kim) very well. No, what I am doing is making things safer, just the opposite,” he said.
Trump also said Kim had always treated him “with great respect.”
“We met on numerous occasions, actually two primary occasions, spoken and spent time,” he said. “I understand him. He understands me.”
Trump met Kim three times during his first term — in Singapore in June 2018, Hanoi, Vietnam, in February 2019 and at the inter-Korean border in June 2019.
His latest overtures have revived speculation that he may be seeking to return to the personalized, leader-to-leader diplomacy that defined his first-term approach to North Korea.
The decision to scale back allied military exercises, in particular, bears similarities to Trump’s approach following the 2018 Singapore summit, when he moved to suspend major drills in an effort to support negotiations with Pyongyang.
Yu Ji-hoon, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, said Trump’s latest remarks should be understood in that context.
“President Trump’s remarks on scaling back the combined exercises appear to reflect an intention to use them as a tool to create an environment conducive to negotiations, with the resumption of dialogue with North Korea in mind,” Yu said.
But he warned that repeated reductions could carry military costs.
“However, if the combined exercises are repeatedly scaled back, there is a risk that the proficiency of the allies’ combined defense posture and the consistency of their deterrence signaling toward North Korea could weaken,” he said.
Whether Trump’s overtures can actually draw Kim back to the negotiating table is far less certain.
North Korea today is in a markedly different strategic position than it was in 2018 and 2019, observers pointed out.
At the time, Pyongyang had strong incentives to engage Washington in hopes of securing sanctions relief and broader diplomatic recognition. Since then, however, North Korea has deepened military and economic cooperation with Russia while strengthening ties with China, reducing its dependence on direct negotiations with the United States.
Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies, said the change has significantly weakened Pyongyang’s incentive to compromise.
“From Kim Jong-un’s perspective, there is no reason to cling to Trump in hopes of an uncertain outcome,” Lim said.
“Kim is likely to see this as a particularly important period for securing economic and military benefits by strengthening anti-US solidarity with Russia and China.”
Lim also pointed to the lingering legacy of the failed 2019 Hanoi summit, where talks collapsed without an agreement.
For Kim, he said, another summit with Trump would carry significant political risk unless Washington was prepared to offer tangible concessions, such as sanctions relief or some form of recognition of North Korea’s nuclear status.
“Kim is likely well aware that dramatic promises from a leader facing political pressure could amount to little more than a one-off attempt to escape an immediate domestic political crisis,” Lim said.
He added that Trump’s unpredictability could also make Pyongyang wary.
“From Kim’s perspective, Trump’s impatience may make him less an ‘easy opponent’ than an unpredictable ‘ticking time bomb,’” Lim said.
The gap over denuclearization remains another fundamental obstacle.
North Korea has made clear that it no longer intends to negotiate away its nuclear arsenal, while Washington continues to regard denuclearization as an ultimate objective.
That divergence makes a breakthrough difficult even if direct contact has resumed.
On top of it, Trump’s recent remarks also suggest that North Korea may not be the only intended audience.
In the same series of comments in which he discussed military exercises and his relationship with Kim, Trump repeatedly complained that South Korea had declined to assist the United States in its war against Iran.
Trump said he recently asked President Lee Jae Myung whether South Korea would be willing to help.
“I said, ‘Would you like to give us a little hand? We don’t need help with Iran, but if you’d like, give us a hand with Iran.’ He said, ‘No thanks,’” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Trump added that he found Seoul’s response difficult to reconcile with the US military presence in South Korea.
That juxtaposition is revealing, analysts say.
Yu said Trump’s decision to mention South Korea’s refusal to contribute to operations against Iran alongside his complaints about the exercises showed that Washington may increasingly judge allies not only by their role in regional defense, but also by their willingness to support broader US strategic priorities.
“This reflects Trump’s view of alliances through the lens of reciprocal contributions and burden-sharing,” Yu said.
“Washington could increasingly call on Seoul to play a more active role in regional security issues, including in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific.”
He added that the US’ widening strategic burdens — from competition with China to security commitments in Europe and the Middle East — could further increase pressure on allies to shoulder more responsibility.
“As a result, future discussions over burden-sharing within the South Korea-US alliance could expand beyond defense cost-sharing to encompass a broader range of areas, including strengthening South Korea’s independent defense capabilities, maritime security, defense and shipbuilding cooperation and contributions to security beyond the Korean Peninsula,” Yu said.
North Korea’s state media, meanwhile, has yet to publicly acknowledge Trump’s recent overtures. As of Tuesday afternoon, neither the Korean Central News Agency nor Rodong Sinmun had reported on Trump’s comments about Kim’s response or his directive to reduce US-South Korea exercises.
Seoul, following Trump's messages, stressed that South Korea has been participating in international discussions aimed at restoring a cease-fire in Iran and ensuring the safe and free passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
“Taking into account various factors, including readiness on the Korean Peninsula and domestic legal procedures, we have been in close discussions with the US side over ways to make substantive and military contributions,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Park Doo-soon said during a regular briefing.
Asked whether the government's position had changed following Trump's latest remarks, Park stressed that the discussions predated the president's comments.
“We have consistently been in close discussions with the US side over ways to make substantive and military contributions, taking various factors into consideration,” Park said, declining to disclose details.
Trump’s outreach also coincides with the 50th anniversary of the 1976 ax murders at the Joint Security Area in Panmunjom, where two US Army officers were killed by North Korean soldiers — a reminder of the long history of confrontation at the same border village where Trump and Kim met in 2019.
mkjung@heraldcorp.com
