From EVs to missiles: Rare earths emerge as new trade battlefield

Earlier this month, China imposed new restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals, its latest salvo in the intensifying trade standoff with the US. The move, an apparent retaliation against Washington’s aggressive tariffs, has raised alarm in the US, which relies on China for around 70 percent of these vital minerals used in everything from semiconductors and electric vehicles to military equipment.

The April 4 restrictions apply to seven rare earth elements -- samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium –- as well as products associated with them, including permanent magnets. While not an outright ban, the new rule requires companies to secure special government licenses, a step that could significantly delay shipments.

Though it remains unclear how China will carry out the policy, a recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies suggests that it will likely result in a pause in exports as Beijing sets up the licensing system.

The curb is also putting South Korea on edge, as around 50 percent of its rare earth imports come from China. There are growing concerns that the licensing regime could disrupt access to supplies essential to the country’s export-driven industries, especially in automobiles and semiconductors.

“The impact is real. Rare earths are critical materials to virtually all advanced industries, from EVs and batteries to semiconductors,” said Kim Pil-soo, a professor of automotive engineering at Daelim University. “Korea will also be affected as it relies on Chinese supplies of materials for batteries and EVs.”

There are 17 types of rare earth metals, broadly divided into two kinds: heavy and light. Heavy rare earths, with higher atomic weights, are typically scarcer and harder to process, making them more valuable than their lighter counterparts with smaller atomic weights.

China's latest crackdown zeroes in on heavy rare earths, tightening the squeeze on an already strained supply.

A large portion of rare earths is used to produce special magnets, which are key parts in motors for vehicles, drones, robots, electric devices and missiles. These elements also power smartphones, semiconductors and televisions.

Despite their widespread application, the rare earth market is heavily dominated by China, both in mining and refining. According to the International Energy Agency, China accounts for about 61 percent of global rare earth mine production and a whopping 92 percent of processing.

And when it comes to processing heavy rare earths, China accounted for 99 percent globally, according to the CSIS report.

By controlling the global supply chain, China can ultimately decide which countries and companies can and cannot receive the prized materials.

This is not the first time China has leveraged its near-monopoly status. Beijing is widely believed to have weaponized rare earths in 2010 when it halted exports to Japan, prompted by a territorial dispute. The incident caused rare earth prices to surge fourfold before crashing later when the crunch was resolved. But it taught an important lesson on the need to diversify supply chains and avoid overreliance on a single country for strategic materials.

The 2010 incident was a wakeup call for many countries, including South Korea. Seoul has since taken some steps to secure stockpiles and diversify its offerings and markets, but not enough to fully close the gap.

Last year, 47.5 percent of its rare earth imports were from China, down from 71.6 percent in 2019, according to the Korea International Trade Association.

But for some materials like dysprosium and terbium, critical components for EV motors, import dependence on China still hovers around 80 percent.

Following China’s announcement this month, the industry ministry said Korea maintains over six months’ worth of public reserves for metals like dysprosium, essential in EV motors, and yttrium, commonly used as phosphors for displays and lasers and alloy additives.

For lutetium, used as a chemical catalyst in petroleum processing, the impact is expected to be minimal since Korea’s industry mainly relies on palladium-based catalysts, the ministry explained. Elements like samarium, used in magnets for EVs, precision-guided weapons and in the aerospace industry, are imported from China as well as other countries.

Still, the measures fall short, according to experts. “Korea’s current six-month reserve is definitely an improvement, but it's not enough. For strategic materials, we need at least a one-year buffer,” said Kim.

“Since China has used similar export controls on critical minerals in the past, we have stockpiled enough rare earths to last at least several months," said a source from the auto industry. "But if the restriction is prolonged, it could be problematic in the future."

Kim also stressed that Korea needs to not only diversify imports away from China, but also move quickly to develop alternatives to rare earths, as global supply chain disruptions are likely to happen again in the future.