Govt. to reinforce measures to predict spread of wildfires

The South Korean government said Wednesday it will update the current Wildfire Spread Prediction System to better handle the rapid spread of wildfires by adopting appropriate prevention measures based on maximum instantaneous wind speeds rather than average wind speeds.

The Ministry of Interior and Safety and the Korea Forest Service announced a set of measures to facilitate safe and effective evacuations from fires, after parts of southeastern Korea battled some of the worst wildfires in the country’s history for nearly 10 days from March 21.

Authorities said errors in the system were found during the latest wildfires, in which instantaneous wind speeds were recorded at a maximum of 27.6 meters per second. This corresponds to wildfires spreading at a speed of 8.2 kilometers per hour.

These figures, however, were largely inaccurate because the system accounted only for wind speeds on flat terrain. As the March fires occurred in mountainous areas, the existing system failed to take into account steep topography, which can cause sudden shifts in wind direction and speed, resulting in misleading forecasts.

“Though the government continuously referred to the Wildfire Spread Prediction System when issuing evacuation orders as it did in the past, the system proved to be highly inaccurate during the recent wildfire crisis,” said Hong Jong-wan, deputy minister of the Interior Ministry’s Societal Disaster Response Bureau.

To address those shortcomings, the Korea Forest Service plans to upgrade its wildfire prediction system to factor in maximum instantaneous wind speeds rather than average wind speeds. If maximum wind speeds near a fire exceed 20 m/s, the system will conclude that it has the potential to develop into a "high-speed" fire and will alert local governments in the affected areas to take appropriate measures. High-speed fires, according to the Interior Ministry, are defined as large-scale fires that have the potential to spread fast due to strong wind gusts exceeding 20 m/s.

Additionally, the alert system will be upgraded to distinguish whether a wildfire's path has been identified or remains unknown. If the wildfire’s route has been identified with the help of firefighting helicopters and drones, the system will continuously calculate the potential reach of the flames based on maximum wind speeds and other real-time data.

Also, using the data calculated by the prediction system, the government will issue evacuation alerts based on a three-level system. A level-one alert will notify residents when a wildfire breaks out in a nearby province or city, informing them that an evacuation order could be issued soon. The second and third levels will be issued for areas designated as “potential danger zones” and “danger zones,” respectively, and evacuation protocols will differ accordingly. Areas where wildfires are expected to hit within eight hours will be designated as potential danger zones, while areas where wildfires are expected to hit within five hours will be designated as danger zones.

To make sure evacuation measures are carried out effectively and in an orderly manner, the Interior Ministry added that it will initiate fire evacuation training sessions in partnership with local governments.

Though the ministry didn’t specify when the training would take place, Hong told the press that it will “take place in numerous sessions and as soon as possible, with the earliest training sessions scheduled to take place by the end of April.”