As Lee verdict looms, Democratic Party begins to weigh 'what if'

Anxiety within the Democratic Party of Korea is growing, as the verdict on an election law case against its most likely presidential candidate, Rep. Lee Jae-myung, could come before the decision on President Yoon Suk-yeol's impeachment.

Lee is appealing a jail sentence he received in November that was strong enough to strip him of his ability to hold public office. If his jail term is upheld on March 26, the Democratic Party leader could see his chance at the presidency slide out of view.

Although Lee could appeal to the Supreme Court, a recent poll showed that voters would not support him as a presidential candidate if the high court confirmed his sentence.

The poll published Wednesday showed 51 percent of 1,000 eligible voters aged 18 and older said they were opposed to Lee running for president if he is found guilty in the upcoming ruling, while 44.8 percent said they supported it. The other 4.2 percent said they were unsure.

More about the poll, conducted by pollster Research View through an automated telephone survey, can be found on the National Election Commission website.

For the past few months, the Democratic Party has been operating under the premise that the president's impeachment would be confirmed before the verdict on Lee's appeal.

Now Lee himself appears to be rethinking his calculations. Lee met with municipal council members, who were on hunger strike to demand Yoon's impeachment, on Tuesday in Gwangju, and said the Democratic Party "ought to prepare for a long battle."

Democratic Party lawmakers are beginning to publicly acknowledge the possibility that the Constitutional Court could take more time to reach a verdict. One told The Korea Herald on condition of anonymity that the "wake-up call" hit hard when the court released Yoon from detention last week.

"It's almost astounding that none of the Democratic Party's 170 lawmakers thought of it as a possibility," he said. "Now we are starting to think anything is possible."

Democratic Party Rep. Kim Yong-min on the Assembly's judiciary committee told The Korea Herald that the Constitutional Court court may hold onto its verdict until before April 18, when two of its justices' terms end.

While Lee enjoys a firm grip on his party, it still has a diverse pool of potential presidential candidates. Most of them are closely aligned with the former liberal President Moon Jae-in — which has become a fringe faction since Lee Jae-myung began to dominate the party.

Lee Nak-yon, who was Moon's prime minister, said in his latest public appearances both the president and the Democratic Party leader "need to go."

"We need to answer the call of the times, and get rid of both Yoon Suk Yeol and Lee Jae-myung," Lee, who founded a minor liberal party after drifting from the Democratic Party last general election, said. The remarks from the former prime minister were taken by many within the Democratic Party as making his intentions to run for president official.

Kim Kyung-soo, one of the most prominent pro-Moon figures, is on day 11 of his hunger strike urging the Constitutional Court to impeach Yoon. Kim has been working to increase his profile, visiting the Democratic Party's traditional stronghold of Gwangju, and regularly making press statements.

Kim Dong-yeon, the governor of Gyeonggi Province near Seoul, touted himself as a candidate "without a liability" in a radio interview Wednesday, taking a dig at the Democratic Party leader. The governor said he would announce whether or not to run for president after the Constitutional Court removes Yoon from office.

The National Assembly's Speaker Woo Won-shik, who has not publicly hinted at his presidential intentions, is one of the widely speculated potential candidates, highlighted by his surprise meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Feb. 7. Woo said he saw it as his role as speaker to fill in for the absence of leadership on the diplomatic stage while the country awaits the Constitutional Court's decision.