US President-elect Donald Trump arrives to speak at a MAGA victory rally at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC on Sunday, one day ahead of his inauguration ceremony. (AFP)
US President-elect Donald Trump arrives to speak at a MAGA victory rally at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC on Sunday, one day ahead of his inauguration ceremony. (AFP)

US President Donald Trump is set to be sworn into office Monday during an inauguration ceremony at the Capitol, evoking memories of his first term in 2017, when South Korea, a key Asian ally, was led by an acting president following the suspension of then-President Park Geun-hye.

But this time, Seoul’s political crisis has reached levels far beyond 2017. President Yoon Suk Yeol became the first sitting leader arrested after his failed martial law declaration on Dec. 3, now awaiting the Constitutional Court’s impeachment ruling. Pro-Yoon riots at the Seoul Western District Court on Sunday marked the first attack on the judiciary since South Korea's democratization in the 1990s.

While Trump has not publicly commented on South Korea’s current political turbulence, he privately joked about the situation, saying, “Everyone calls me chaotic, but look at South Korea," CBS reported Saturday based on a dozen sources familiar with conversations between election and inauguration day.

Although the timing of his remarks was not specified, Trump reportedly added that he would meet with Yoon “if they ever stop impeaching him.”

US President Donald Trump meets with China's President Xi Jinping at the start of their bilateral meeting at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019. (File Photo - Retuers)
US President Donald Trump meets with China's President Xi Jinping at the start of their bilateral meeting at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019. (File Photo - Retuers)

Korea already marginalized in Trump 2.0

Trump prioritizes leader-level diplomacy when addressing key issues and has shown little interest in meeting with Acting President Choi Sang-mok, who wears three hats, including acting prime minister and deputy prime minister for economic affairs.

Choi and Trump have not even spoken on the phone.

“Deputy Prime Minister Choi Sang-Mok, although no doubt a capable man, is only third in the line of succession and thus has a temporary and limited mandate to conduct the nation’s foreign policy,” said Jaehan Park, an assistant professor at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, in a joint commentary on Trump's second term on Asia policy published by the Foreign Policy Research Institute based in Philadelphia.

Trump has repeatedly expressed a desire to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and has extended an invitation to Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration on Monday. In December, Trump said he was open to meeting Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba before returning to the White House in January, stating, "If they'd like to do that, I would do that."

The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday that Trump has shown interest in making the trip to China within his first 100 days in office, citing an individual familiar with the discussions.

Trump has yet to name a US ambassador to South Korea, despite having appointed ambassadors to China and Japan, and a Presidential Envoy for Special Missions, including North Korean affairs in December.

Trump supporters hold South Korean and American flags on Sunday in Washington, DC. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance will be sworn in on Modnay.  (Getty Images via AFP)
Trump supporters hold South Korean and American flags on Sunday in Washington, DC. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance will be sworn in on Modnay. (Getty Images via AFP)

Calls for calibrated approach to Korea policy

Signs indicate that South Korea is a lower priority for Trump, even as the Korean Peninsula's security landscape has grown more volatile since 2017. North Korea has significantly advanced its missile and nuclear capabilities, extending its reach beyond the peninsula to as far as Ukraine.

Seoul braces for Trump’s potential pursuit of a “small deal” with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, possibly recognizing the regime’s nuclear arsenal in exchange for concessions -- effectively tolerating short-range nuclear missiles targeting South Korea.

Another major concern is Trump’s likely push to renegotiate the 2026-2030 defense cost-sharing agreement, ratified by South Korea’s National Assembly just last November.

With the ball in Trump’s court amid a leadership vacuum in Seoul, Yong Suk Lee, a 22-year veteran of the CIA, stated in the joint commentary, "The second Trump administration’s immediate priority on the Korean Peninsula is South Korea."

Experts urge his second administration to take a cautious, calibrated approach to Korean Peninsula issues, particularly as South Korea grapples with political turbulence.

“The new administration will likely double down on Trump’s past demands that South Korea pay up more for its own defense, but it should do so cautiously and avoid fueling the political forces in South Korea that advocate closer ties with China at the expense of the West,” said Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein, a non-resident fellow at the FPRI.

Park said negotiations on substantive issues, from burden-sharing to trade, can wait a few months.

“In these circumstances, Washington’s best bet for now is perhaps 'business as usual' -- that is, maintaining a robust deterrence posture on the Korean Peninsula so that neither Pyongyang nor Beijing can take advantage of the political vacuum in Seoul.”

Echoing the sentiment, Lee underscored, "The challenge for President Trump and his Korea policymakers will be to help bolster Seoul’s strategic credibility while giving it a safe space to put its house in order."