The race for this year’s earlier-than-planned president election has reached the halfway point, with a month passed since the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye and a month remaining to polling day.

Despite the pressing timeline, the outlook is becoming no less unpredictable, with the front-runners entangled in a close match and the lingering possibility of minority figures forming alliances to change the outcome.

Early signs

In past presidential elections, the candidate who had the lead in public polls about a month before polling day has usually gone on to win, according to Gallup Korea polling data.

Since direct presidential elections began in 1987, the only exception was the 2002 election, in which Roh Moo-hyun achieved a dramatic victory after an unlikely alliance with conservative rival Chung Mong-joon.

Moon Jae-in of the Democratic Party, who is bidding for the presidency for the second time, has been the consistent front-runner in this year’s race.

The Gallup Korea survey on Friday showed that Moon kept his lead with 38 percent, while another survey by Realmeter put his support at 41.3 percent.

But it was not Moon’s ongoing lead in polls which caught the attention of the political audience -- it was the rapid rise of Moon’s rival, Rep. Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party.

Ahn received support ratings of 35 percent and 34.5 percent in the same polls, significantly narrowing the gap with Moon and widening lead over conservative figures such as Hong Joon-pyo of the Liberty Korea Party and Rep. Yoo Seong-min of the Bareun Party.

Generation gap in voter sentiment

The most noticeable difference in the approval ratings of the two front-runners is in demographics.

Ahn has seen his popularity wane among voters in their 20s since the last election, but has gained support from the over-60s, while Moon is popular with younger voters.


The Gallup Korea survey showed Friday that Ahn’s support rating among those in their 20s and 30s, which reached 34 percent and 28 percent respectively in 2012, had stalled at 22 percent as of this week.

His figures among those in their 50s and 60s, however, stood at nearly 50 percent, indicating a firm support from the nation’s elderly citizens who apparently favored centrist Ahn over the more liberal Moon.

Moon, on the other hand, received 48 percent and 59 percent support respectively from voters in their 20s and 30s, while his approval rating among the over-60s lingered at around 15 percent.

The lack of powerful conservative candidates was expected to have opened up older voters to Moon, but this does not appear to have happened so far.

The generation gap is a point of tension for Moon, as the actual voter turnout has traditionally been higher among older citizens.

It was for this reason that Moon and the Democratic Party, competing against conservative rival Park Geun-hye and the Saenuri Party, had campaigned to encourage voters -- especially the political skeptical young generation -- to head to polling stations during the last presidential election.
Candidacy unification still likely

Though the presidential race is shaping up into a two-way competition between Moon and Ahn, political observers are still on the lookout for a possible candidacy merger -- not only among minority runners, but possibly between one of the outsiders and Ahn.

Ahn, who has won an upper hand through his sweeping victory in the party’s primaries and the consequent rise in polls, has so far been reserved over the possibility of alliance.

“I will not form an alliance for the sake of political interests, I will not form an alliance to pardon those who opposed (former President Park’s) impeachment,” he said Tuesday after being confirmed as the party’s presidential candidate.

While Ahn’s participation remains uncertain, lower-tier runners with single-digit approval ratings could still make the difference.

Possibly holding the key in the alliance are centrist candidates with no party affiliation, such as former Democratic Party interim chief Kim Chong-in.

Rep. Yoo of the Bareun Party, who sees himself as moderate and reformative conservative, has hinted at forming an alliance ahead of the main game.

By Bae Hyun-jung (tellme@heraldcorp.com)