North Korea’s rejection of dialogue over its denuclearization is expected to prolong its war of nerves with the South and U.S. despite stepped-up diplomatic efforts by the allies and China to defuse tensions on the peninsula.

Indicating future negotiations with the allies should proceed on the premise that the North is a nuclear power, the Rodong Sinmun, the ruling Workers’ Party daily, said last week Pyongyang would join talks only over arms reduction.

The allies have maintained that the North should first show its sincerity over denuclearization and refrain from further escalating tensions before any political and economic assistance is offered to it.

“Seoul and Pyongyang, and Washington and Pyongyang… they remain poles apart over the agenda or purpose of future talks,” said Yoo Ho-yeol, a North Korea expert at Korea University.

“By ratcheting up pressure on the North to show any signs of its willingness to renounce its nuclear program, the parties involved could forge the conditions for sincere talks to resume.”

Apparently to forge the atmosphere for dialogue over the provocative state, Beijing has ratcheted up diplomatic efforts to bring its communist ally back to the negotiating table.

On Monday, China’s top nuclear envoy Wu Dawei and Glyn Davis, Washington’s special representative for North Korean policy, met to discuss the North Korea issue. Reports said Wu Dawei stressed the need for the six-party denuclearization talks to resume.

Seoul’s Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se is also to fly to Beijing for talks over North Korea.

Pyongyang is reported to have recently shown its willingness for talks with Beijing, sparking speculation that Wu Dawei might travel to Pyongyang after his visit to Washington.

The Chinese diplomat could help deliver Washington’s position to the North and seek to bring the North and other parties to a fresh round of denuclearization talks. But uncertainty remains over the prospect of the talks as the North remains adamant that it will not give up nuclear weapons.

“It appears that by launching bold provocations, the North is forcing countries to recognize it as a nuclear power and seeking to dominate the agenda for future negotiations with them,” said Park Hyeong-jung, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification in his recent research paper.

“The regime’s dilemma is South Korea and the U.S. no longer get embroiled in such a gambit, because the North used the similar gambit many times before and the allies know how to effectively respond to it.”

The South and U.S. have been closely watching the possibility of additional North Korean provocations, including short and intermediate-range missile launches.

Analysts said Pyongyang might refrain from setting off provocations as it could face strong backlash from Beijing and Washington, as they are reeling from a devastating earthquake in southwest China’s Sichuan province and a terrorist bombing in Boston, respectively.

“Given its provocations aim to get the upper hand in any future negotiations or gain global attention, Pyongyang might be cautious about launching another provocation when the U.S. and China were struggling with such serious domestic problems.”

Observers said as its internal political events end at the end of this month, the North might feel more inclined toward dialogue as it is in dire need of outside help with its food shortages and other necessities deteriorating.

The allies’ joint Foal Eagle exercise, which the North berated as a rehearsal for a nuclear war of incursion, is also to end on April 30.

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)