Now that the Constitutional Court will determine the fate of President Yoon Suk Yeol and his impeachment within the next six months, it seems inevitable that South Korea will handle a number of critical tasks in the absence of a sitting president.
Prime Minister Han Duck-soo has assumed the role of acting president, but whether he can steer the country smoothly despite the political chaos following Yoon’s impeachment remains to be seen.
One of the most critical challenges involves US President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on Jan. 20 next year. Trump’s trade, diplomacy and other policies are widely expected to play in a negative way for South Korea, and his relative inattention to Asia’s fourth-biggest economy is feared to result in “Korea passing,” referring to a situation in which Seoul is sidelined by major powers in important international affairs.
South Korea’s local media outlets cited the press conference that Trump held Monday as an example that offers a glimpse into his focus at this point. At his Mar-a-Lago resort, Trump announced an investment deal in which Masayoshi Son, CEO of Japan’s SoftBank Group, plans to invest $100 billion in US projects over the next four years.
Son’s massive investment deal showcases Trump’s current focus on attracting foreign investment into the US, as he spent recent weeks trying to hammer out similar deals with foreign leaders.
Trump also hinted at a possible meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba before his inauguration. The SoftBank deal and his talk of Ishiba reflect the fast-developing diplomatic and international business race in which South Korea is being outpaced by Japan in seeking a better position with the incoming Trump administration.
During the press conference, Trump also expressed his intention to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over the protracted war. He also made a reference to Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Most notable was that Trump said he “got along well” with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un but made not a single mention of South Korea at the press event.
That Trump placed South Korea on the back burner in his agenda suggests that South Korean officials are likely to face greater challenges when they sit down to discuss trade, defense and security issues with their US counterparts.
Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in an interview with Yonhap News Agency on Monday that that Trump might try to reduce US troops in South Korea and roll out tariffs against the Asian ally, stressing that Seoul will have to confront Trump’s “paradigm shifting ways” of statecraft.
“Once they come into office, (the Trump administration) will be moving very quickly on everything from tariffs to diplomacy to Ukraine, possibly to North Korea, to China,” Cha said. “And for there not to be a fully elected new administration in South Korea on the back end of the current crisis, I think (it) is quite disadvantageous to South Korea.”
It is hardly surprising that Trump will likely step up his trade pressure against South Korea. What is unknown is how much and how hard he will press South Korea to accept his terms and conditions regarding trade and defense issues.
Given that South Korea is now in a leadership vacuum, Trump may find it easier to take the upper hand in negotiations in connection with major export-centered companies, such as chipmakers, automakers and battery makers.
Acting President Han Duck-soo has taken up a challenging position to lead the country, which involves a number of difficult tasks and obstacles. In consideration of the gravity of Trump’s potential “Korea passing,” Han is urged to brace for tough negotiations with the US and take as many proactive steps as possible.
