Weather forecasting has become essential to daily life, yet climate change is making it more unpredictable than ever. Amid growing uncertainty in weather prediction, Chang Dong-eon, administrator of the Korea Meteorological Administration, believes that the agency’s mission goes beyond delivering accurate forecasts. It also aims to empower individuals to take climate action and to enhance the nation’s overall resilience in facing the climate crisis, he said.
“Just this summer, there were up to 16 cases where hourly rainfall of up to 100 millimeters was recorded. This is an extremely unprecedented case,” he said in an interview with The Korea Herald. “Depending on how we respond to the climate crisis from now on and into the future, I believe it is the same as putting our country’s fate at stake," he said.
Advances in technology have strengthened the country’s ability to manage weather-induced disasters, as forecasting relies heavily on scientific methods. However, it is the combination of human expertise, historical knowledge and technological progress that improves forecast accuracy, enhancing the nation’s resilience to extreme weather, he said.
Currently, the KMA has around 1,350 meteorologists. That may seem like a lot, but they’re not enough compared to how tough it has gotten recently to predict weather patterns accurately, he said.
“Making weather forecasts isn’t based on one's gut feeling. It is strictly based on science and technology. With that being said, the KMA needs more research personnel who can develop advanced scientific technologies, meteorologists as well as an increased budget in developing technologies which are key to predicting unusual weather phenomena caused by climate change,” he said.
A larger budget for developing technologies that are key to predicting unusual weather phenomena and setting a proper response system against climate change is also needed, because Korea’s budget toward this area is significantly less compared to other countries such as the US, according to Chang.
“The difference between the US’ total budget on their response to climate change and Korea’s is that overall, the US budget is 13 times more than Korea’s budget,” said Chang. “As for the budget per capita, there is a 3.7-fold difference.”
A new, never-before-seen response system toward climate change is necessary, now more than ever. On Oct. 25, the KMA announced that the Climate Change Monitoring and Prediction Act would go into effect to help Korea establish a detailed strategy against the effects of climate change and build a systematic monitoring system against the impacts that come with climate change in the coming years.
When asked how a country can better prep itself for weather changes that come with climate change, the administrator said that it is vital for weather agencies like the KMA to “hold scenarios that show how the climate is currently changing and how extreme weather events such as global warming and high precipitation levels are likely to change under current given weather conditions.”
For example, the Climate Change Situation Map, which demonstrates information regarding Korea’s climate change situation as a map, will be made available to the public in December.
“Users can look up climate factors, such as temperature and precipitation, as one would normally use a map application. It is also intuitive, showing future climate change projections by region and visual information through distribution maps and graphs, he said.
This map will be able to be utilized in all parts of society, from those who do research on relevant areas to those whose livelihoods depend on weather conditions, such as farmers.
“When the general public’s understanding behind climate change is high, policymakers can be better monitored as to whether they are properly implementing climate change response policies,” said Chang. “Individuals will also be more empowered to take their measures of climate action, which will strengthen society’s overall capacity in responding to the climate crisis.”
To better respond to extreme weather events caused by climate change, the KMA has made and is continuing to make technological improvements to its weather prediction models.
Also known as the Korean Integrated Model or KIM for short, it is Korea’s numerical weather prediction tool, which processes large amounts of data about the atmosphere, oceans and land surface and applies complex equations to predict weather conditions such as wind, rain and temperature patterns to provide weather forecasts.
“The KIM currently ranks around fourth to seventh place in the world in terms of its accuracy and capability in making proper weather predictions,” stated Chang.
Currently, nine countries in the world possess their numerical weather prediction tool, including Korea. According to Chang, Korea has also conducted official development assistance programs in countries such as Cambodia to provide meteorological assistance to strengthen its capacity for climate change response and to reduce natural disaster risks.
“While the KIM was developed according to Korea’s weather characteristics, it has recently gotten even more difficult to make proper weather predictions due to unprecedented weather conditions such as unpredicted, record-breaking rainfalls,” Chang mentioned. “Therefore, the KMA is looking to implement various technological advancements (other than the KIM) such as artificial intelligence-based technologies to make its short-term forecast more accurate.” Currently, the KMA issues a short-term forecast of up to four days, which will soon be extended to five days by late November.
One such AI-based technology is Alpha Weather, which the KMA developed jointly with the Korea Advanced Institute of Technology in 2021. Alpha Weather, programmed to predict weather patterns based on the KMA’s radar imagery data from the last 40 years, can accurately predict weather patterns from six hours to up to 10 days.
“As of now, (Alpha Weather) is capable of producing a six-hour forecast of precipitation levels in less than 40 seconds,” mentioned Chang.
Also crucial to managing the impacts of climate change include the availability of accurate long-term weather forecast systems, such as those forecasting six months to a year ahead. Currently, the longest weather forecast that the KMA issues is the three-month outlook, released once every month showing the average temperature and precipitation levels for the next three months.
“Both the six-month and one-year outlook will be made available to the public as a trial program from Dec. 23 this year,” added Chang.
However, of all the necessary technologies and skills a state weather agency must possess, Chang added that “continuously enhancing the capabilities of predicting abnormal weather patterns” is essential.
“I will work to establish a permanent research organization, tentatively named the Korea Institute of Numerical Weather Prediction, to systematically promote the advancement of numerical weather prediction tools and forecasting technology to improve Korea’s ability to predict abnormal weather patterns,” affirmed Chang. “The KMA will also work to play a leading role in enhancing the country’s capacity to respond to climate change by properly monitoring and forecasting Korea’s status related to climate change.”
Profile
Chang Dong-eon is the 16th administrator of the Korea Meteorological Administration and has been in office since July. Chang, who previously worked as a researcher for NASA before joining the KMA as a weather researcher in 2001, worked to develop South Korea’s first weather forecasting system -- also known as the Korean Integrated Model or KIM -- as well as the Earthquake Early Warning system which sends alerts to relevant authorities when an earthquake is detected. Before being appointed as an administrator, Chang served as the 13th vice administrator from August 2022.
