Lee Il-gyu

South Korea should make it easier for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s elites to switch sides and stir change, Lee Il-gyu, who was Pyongyang’s counselor of political affairs in Cuba, said Friday.

“South Korea should engage not only North Korea’s general public but also its elites to elicit change from within North Korea,” he said at a forum hosted by the Institute for National Security Strategy, a National Intelligence Service think tank, at the National Assembly in Seoul.

Lee was apparently referencing the “Unification Doctrine” unveiled by President Yoon Suk Yeol on Aug. 15 for pursuing a regime change while advocating North Korean people’s rights.

“For members of the North Korean elite, they fear that they will be together held accountable if the Kim regime collapses,” he said. “We have to reassure them that is not going to be the case, and make it easier for them to come over to our side.”

He fled from Cuba in November last year, becoming the latest known high-level North Korean diplomat to defect to South Korea since Tae Yong-ho. Tae, who was a minister at the North Korean embassy in London, arrived in South Korea in 2016.

Lee characterized the North Korean leader’s rule as “party-first,” a principle that also guided his foreign policies.

“The foreign policy principles that North Korea is advocating are simple -- to develop ties with parties of socialist countries and strengthen solidarity with countries that stand against the US. So the list of countries North Korea is willing to work with is not long,” he said.

“North Korea needs to be reminded that ultimately, opening up is the only way and that its isolationist politics will only lead to their fall, as exemplified by its friends.”

The breakthrough moment Kim hopes for with the reelection of former US President Donald Trump is “hard to come by,” Hyun In-taek, who was Minister of Unification in Seoul in 2009-11, said.

Also speaking at the forum, he said the US bypassing South Korea to engage directly with North Korea, cited by some as a risk of a possible second Trump term, was “highly unlikely.”

“The next US administration will have to spend its first half working with the Yoon administration. I think it is highly unlikely that the US, as an ally, would negotiate one-on-one with North Korea when there is staunch opposition from the South Korean government,” he said.

The former minister said Kim’s friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin was also on “shaky grounds.”

“Kim probably thinks he has made a longstanding commitment with Putin. That’s why he could afford to distance himself from China. But Putin is not going to stick around once Russia’s war with Ukraine is over,” he said.

“He had already experienced something similar with Trump, being abandoned after he had served his purpose.”

Hyun said the North Korean leader appeared to be having a hard time dealing with the gap between the country’s economic standing and the diplomatic ventures he was able to pull.

“The father Kim had limited foreign policy options as in his time, North Korea’s military power was still incomplete. Kim Jong-un on the other hand has held summits with world leaders like Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and recently, even Vladimir Putin,” he said.

“But domestically, he’s in a very bad place. He cannot even feed his own people.”

South Korea could play a more active role in bringing about change in North Korea, rather than waiting for history to do its job, Yoo Seong-ok, an expert at the NIS think tank, said.

“North Korea faces the choice of embracing the influx of outside information and the demands of its freedom-seeking people, or keeping its doors shut,” he said. “We could play a role in helping them make a choice.”