Speculation is rising that Pyongyang could up the ante with further military provocations this week as it marks a major national holiday, following up on its recent missile launches, experts say.

Thursday marks the birthday of Kim Il-sung, the country’s founder and the late grandfather of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Known in the North as the Day of the Sun, it is one of the country’s most important national holidays. Military parades and cultural events are typically held for the occasion. The regime has also repeatedly staged provocations on or around the holiday.

Some of the major military actions since Kim Jong-un took power include the April 2012 launch of the Unha-3 rocket, which broke apart after liftoff. On April 15, 2016, the North conducted its first test launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile. The following year, the North held a massive military parade and fired ballistic missiles almost on a weekly basis. Last year the regime reportedly fired cruise missiles into the sea on the eve of the holiday.

This year, the North might flex its military muscle yet again, possibly revealing a new 3,000-ton submarine that could carry three submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

According to Yonhap News Agency on Sunday, intelligence authorities in South Korea and the US believe the North has completed building the large submarine unveiled in July 2019, and that the regime is currently weighing the right time to bring it out for a “strategic effect,” as well as to maximize pressure against Washington.

The report added that the North could launch an SLBM from the new submarine as well. 

The assessment comes as a satellite image revealed by a US think tank showed signs of activity at the North’s main shipyard for developing SLBMs, indicating that an impending test may be likely.

According to 38 North, a missile canister for the submersible missile test barge in the Sinpo South Shipyard has likely been removed, possibly for maintenance or for the replacement of a new canister or launch frame to accommodate larger SLBMs.

“There is a possibility that North Korea will unveil its new submarine on or around the holiday to display its military might,” said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University. “Kim Il-sung’s birthday is a very important holiday for Kim Jong-un to prove his legitimacy to the people, and with the country in a dire situation, military strength is the only area he could showcase.”

But Park dismissed the likelihood of an SLBM launch, saying that firing medium- or long-range ballistic missiles would constitute crossing a “red line” and could draw condemnation not only from Washington but also from Beijing.

On Monday, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said it was closely monitoring North Korea’s military moves in coordination with the US amid signs of activity in Sinpo, and was maintaining a readiness posture while keeping various possibilities in mind.

Meanwhile, Kim Dong-yeob, a professor at Kyungnam University’s North Korean studies school, said Pyongyang would continue to amp up military tension in the coming month, by developing and testing advanced weapons as it said it would at the party congress in January. But as to the exact timing, Kim said that was uncertain.

“At the party congress, North Korea outlined its weapons road map in detail, including plans to develop tactical nuclear weapons, military reconnaissance satellites and ballistic missiles,” Kim said.

The North will continue to go its own way with less regard to its relations with the South, he added, or the possibility of sanctions relief from the US, while rolling out weapons and escalating tension.

“But the timing of the release will be largely dependent on how ready and complete the arsenals are,” he said.

Shin Beom-chul, director of the Center for Diplomacy and Security at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, echoed Kim’s views.

“There’s a chance of provocation from the North, but it has to consider many aspects first, including its difficult economic situation and its relations with China,” said Shin, adding that the provocation could be at a less intensive level, as more advanced intercontinental ballistic missile and SLBM launches would require confidence in its technology.

Analysts are also closely watching for North Korea’s reaction to a planned US congressional hearing on recent South Korean legislation that penalizes activists for sending anti-Pyongyang leaflets into North Korea. The hearing is to coincide with the Day of the Sun in North Korea.

The revised Development of Inter-Korean Relations Act, which prohibits sending propaganda leaflets and other materials across the border, took effect last month amid severe backlash from human rights advocates and Washington over free speech concerns.

The Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, a bipartisan body in the House of Representatives that promotes, defends and advocates human rights, is set to convene a hearing on “freedom of expression on the Korean Peninsula,” with five witnesses who have been vocal about North Korea’s human rights violations.

The hearing is expected to openly condemn human rights abuses in North Korea, which Pyongyang flatly denies. It will also likely take aim at the South Korean government for the recent bill and for its reluctance to tackle rights abuses, which critics say is a way to avoid jeopardizing Seoul’s efforts to engage Pyongyang.

North Korea could protest further, considering its sensitivity to criticism over its human rights situation, and may view the hearing as an attack on its leadership, analysts say.

“The North will most likely refute any human rights allegation,” said Kim of Kyungnam University, adding that the regime will likely rebuke the hearing in retaliation.

Jeong Se-hyun, a former unification minister who serves as executive vice chairperson of the presidential National Unification Advisory Council, on Monday accused the commission of having bad intentions in holding the hearing in time for the North’s holiday, saying this would likely be seen as provoking the North and influencing Washington’s ongoing policy review on Pyongyang.

By Ahn Sung-mi (sahn@heraldcorp.com)