The results of the recent midterm elections in the US were as predicted. Democrats have taken control of the House of Representatives, and Republicans retained control over the Senate. Democrats did slightly better than expected in the House of Representatives, but Republicans did slightly better in the Senate. The election fit closely with the historical pattern of the party of the incumbent president losing seats but fell short of being a wave election that gave control of both houses of Congress to the opposition party.

With the election over, thoughts now turn to the presidential election in 2020. The results of the midterm elections suggest that US President Donald Trump will face a tough battle for re-election. Democrats increased their share of college-educated suburban voters that have long supported Republican candidates. They continue to increase their support in Arizona, Georgia and Texas, which are key states in the Republican coalition. Who Trump runs against, of course, will greatly affect his chances.

US midterm elections rarely mean much to Korea, but ongoing negotiations with North Korea make things different this time. If the Republicans had defied history and kept the House of Representatives, then President Trump would have felt vindicated, including in his approach to North Korea. The loss of the House of Representatives and the prospect of a tough re-election battle adds instability because Trump will, despite his own denials, have to make changes in the hope of strengthening his re-election chances.

President Trump sings the praises of his approach to North Korea. On several occasions, he has stated that the situation was “heading toward war” and that former President Barack Obama viewed it as the “greatest danger in the world.” To Trump, the summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and improved relations between the two Koreas show that he has put the Korean Peninsula on a path toward peace -- something his predecessors could not do. The narrative of doing something better than his predecessors has great appeal to Trump because he craves adulation to overcome his deep insecurities.

Another characteristic of Trump is his ability to warp narratives and create surprises to deal with threats. Trump knows that the midterms indicate a difficult race for re-election and that he will need to amend the 2016 playbook to pull through. What he will do is anybody’s guess, but his past suggests that he will look for an opportunity to create a narrative that advances his goals.

Facing a tough re-election in 2004, George W. Bush used the narrative of being a “war president” to urge voters to re-elect him. Come November that year, Bush won the narrowest re-election victory since Woodrow Wilson in 1916. Other presidents have used foreign policy initiatives to look “presidential” and enhance their re-election prospects.

Trump remains committed to the peace narrative regarding North Korea. In exchange for the peace narrative, Trump has shifted his stance from denuclearization to containment. He has not said so and it is not official policy, but it is de facto Trump policy.

The problem for Trump is that powerful interest groups in the US want denuclearization, not containment. As Trump’s de facto policy of containment becomes clear, they will criticize the president and continue the push for denuclearization.

As the 2020 election approaches, Trump may find it advantageous to abandon the peace narrative in favor of the aggressive stance of 2017. He could justify changing the narrative by blaming North Korea for not keeping its end of the bargain. None of this may happen, but the results of the midterm elections added a layer of instability to the situation.

Meanwhile, South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s popularity is slowly declining, a fate that no South Korean president has avoided. This adds another layer of instability. Moon’s popularity is now in the low 50 percent range but will most likely go below that key level soon. From there, disapproval will overtake approval and Moon will be headed to lame duck status, which will make it harder to rally the nation to support his policies.

North Korean leader Kim no doubt knows the trajectory of Moon’s presidency, but, like many, he has trouble figuring Trump out. He knows, however, that negotiating with Trump and Moon will be easier in 2019 than in 2020 when Trump is fighting for his political life and Moon is becoming a lame duck. This makes 2019 the key year for all sides to develop structures for peace that can withstand the harsh political winds of 2020 and beyond.


Robert J. Fouser
Robert J. Fouser, a former associate professor of Korean language education at Seoul National University, writes on Korea from Pawtucket, Rhode Island. He can be reached at robertjfouser@gmail.com. -- Ed.