Talking with Gen. Joseph Votel, the commander of American troops in the Middle East, is a paradoxical reminder of the limits of US military power to determine political outcomes. American bombs helped destroy the Islamic State group in Syria, but they can’t stitch the rag doll of the Syrian nation back together.
Syria’s plight actually got a bit worse this week, as Turkey invaded the border region known as Afrin. Turkey says it’s protecting itself against the Syrian Kurdish organization known as the PKK, which dominates Afrin and which Turkey regards as a terrorist group. The problem is that related Syrian Kurdish forces (under a different name) have been America’s most important ally in defeating the Islamic State.
The flashpoint is a town in northern Syria called Manbij, occupied by the Syrian Kurds and their US military advisers. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened this week to attack Manbij. A senior Trump administration official told me bluntly Tuesday, “Threats to our forces are not something we can accept.” That’s what the unraveling US relationship with “NATO partner” Turkey has come to: military brinkmanship.
What’s happening now in Syria is that history is resuming, after the bloody distraction of the Islamic State group. Long-standing grievances that were postponed while a US-led coalition defeated the caliphate have returned with a vengeance. Turkey, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Russia and the US are all pursuing their self-interests. The space separating these forces has collapsed -- putting US troops perilously close to collision with Russia, Turkey and Iran.
The US military three years ago was given the task of crushing the Islamic State group. Votel and other commanders have largely accomplished that mission, using innovative partnerships and tactics. But they couldn’t erase local hatreds, or conjure up stable governance.
Votel was cautious in describing America’s future mission in Syria when we talked last week at his headquarters here and during a visit to a training base. The roughly 1,500 US troops remaining in Syria will be “conditions-based,” he said, focused on “stabilization” rather than nation-building, seeking to “enhance security so people can get back to their homes,” and supporting UN Security Council resolutions calling for an independent, united Syria.
US officials speak as if America isn’t taking sides in Syria, now that the Islamic State group is shattered. And certainly, the US should move now to embrace all the pieces of Syria’s ethnic mosaic. But the US shouldn’t forget its friends, either, or these haunting casualty numbers: In the final decisive battle to take the Islamic State group capital of Raqqa, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces suffered 650 deaths, Votel says. American deaths in Raqqa were zero.
America needs to bolster Sunni Arabs in Syria, lest the Islamic State returns. But American commanders know that it’s the Kurds (who the Turks now say they want to destroy) who have done the bulk of the fighting and dying. The civilian death toll in the Islamic State group conflict hasn’t been well-calculated, but it was horrific.
Votel visited the ruined city of Raqqa on Monday. He told reporters that the campaign there was “ugly,” but necessary. When we talked last week, he said in the last phase of the Islamic State group campaign, US advisers and airpower would partner with the SDF in a war of “annihilation” against “hundreds” of Islamic State group fighters who are trapped in the lower Euphrates valley. US commanders worry that their SDF allies will be pulled away from this essential mopping-up operation to fight the invading Turks.
A sign of the new post- Islamic State group crackup in Syria was this headline in the Turkish newspaper Yeni Safak about Votel’s arrival in the war zone: “US commander visits ... terrorists in Syria’s Raqqa.” That bodes ill.
Like other senior American officials, Votel stressed to me that America recognized Turkey’s “legitimate concerns,” and described it as a “good partner” that has done “a really good job of border security” over the past year. Soothing words aside, the Trump administration recognizes that the relationship with Turkey is dangerously near the breaking point.
As Erdogan climbs further out on the limb with his invasion, America’s goal should be to broker dialogue between Turkey and the Kurds -- not just in Syria but in Turkey itself, with its large Kurdish minority population. Erdogan’s greatest political and economic successes came in the years when he attempted reconciliation with the Kurds, including the PKK.
As the Islamic State group campaign ends, old regional feuds resume. America can’t stop Turkey, Russia and Iran from making mistakes. But this isn’t the time to be pulling out America’s 1,500 advisers from northeast Syria and creating an even bigger vacuum.
By David Ignatius
David Ignatius can be reached via Twitter: @IgnatiusPost. -- Ed.
