For Asia and the rest of the world, what the US president does and says on overseas summit trips counts. Such will be the same with Donald Trump’s first swing through Asia as president scheduled for early next month.
Trump and his aides have not yet outlined anything like Barack Obama’s “Pivot to Asia” vision, but his engagements with major Asian leaders will certainly set the direction for US policy on the region which will last at least three more years.
So many will closely follow his what is expected to be furious engagements with the leaders of South Korea, China, Japan and those belonging to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
For South Korea, Trump’s visit Nov. 7-8 will set up his third one-on-one summit with President Moon Jae-in since they each took office earlier this year. The two also held two rounds of tripartite talks with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, which focused on their joint stance on North Korea.
US officials made it clear that North Korea’s nuclear and missile belligerence will be high on the topics Trump will discuss with Moon and other leaders in the region.
A White House spokesperson said that Trump’s engagements will strengthen the international resolve to confront the North Korean threat and ensure “the complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”
Trump’s itinerary is dotted with visits to US military bases in the region -- Hawaii, Japan and South Korea -- which will be the first to respond to contingencies in the region, including on the Korean Peninsula.
Trump’s plan to meet with the families of Japanese citizens abducted by the North Korean regime also indicates that he will try to highlight the dark aspects of the rogue regime that now threatens regional and global security with nuclear arsenals and intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The US president is expected to highlight his positon on the North Korea crisis – for which he often sent out confusing, mixed signals – in an address to the National Assembly in Seoul.
Given what we have heard from the president and his aides like Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Trump is most likely to focus on pressuring North Korea with international sanctions. Remember Trump often indicated use of military force, with his security and defense aides repeated saying, “All options are on the table.”
One lingering concern is that such a hard-line stance of the Trump administration could conflict with President Moon Jae-in’s position, as despite all the rhetoric for pursuing both sanctions and dialogue, he prefers engagement with the North, as did his liberal predecessors Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun.
Another possible area of concern over Trump’s discussion with Moon is the fate of the 5-year-old free trade agreement between the two countries.
The White House statement announcing Trump’s Asian tour did not hide what’s on the minds of the US president and trade officials. The White House spokesperson said Trump will present the US’ vision for a “free and open” Indo-Pacific region and underscore the important role the region plays in advancing “America’s economic prosperity.”
The statement also said Trump will emphasize the importance of “fair and reciprocal” economic ties with America’s trade partners.
That means with South Korean and US officials already in discussions to revise the Korea-US FTA, Moon may have a hard time defending the offensive of a man whose motto is “America First.”
Like their predecessors, Moon and Trump could have differences on some bilateral, regional and global issues. Remember the relationship between Jimmy Carter and Park Chung-hee, which has cooled down over the issues of human rights in Korea and the US plan to cut back its troops here.
The escalating North Korea crisis, which has stoked fears of war, alone offers sufficient reason for Moon and Trump to avoid discord and build up a cooperative, trusting relationship by striking a chord on the crisis and other major contentious issues.
Both South Korean and US officials preparing for the Moon-Trump summit ought to make sure the two leaders foster mutual confidence in each other. The most crucial thing is to send out consistent, united messages regarding the nuclear crisis. Exposure of ambiguity or differences only works to the advantage of the young dictator in North Korea who brandishes dangerous nuclear and missile prowess.