The latest feat of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the launching on Tuesday of what could be an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching Alaska, presents the 13th American president in a row the dilemma of what to do about North Korea.
None of the various options to be considered to address this problem is attractive. A military attack on North Korea would lead inevitably to catastrophic damage to America’s long-term ally, South Korea, as well as to carnage and disruption in North Korea and potentially in the neighboring part of China.
An effort to take out Kim Jong-un, the DPRK’s current “Dear Leader,” would have very uncertain results. It’s unlikely that Kim’s death quickly would lead to North Korea’s orderly transition to a modern society. Negotiation always seems to be the recommended approach to such problems, but previous talks that the United States and other neighboring countries have been able to lure the North Koreans into have not come to much.
China has long supported the erratic North Korea regime. America’s pressing the Chinese to put the heat on the North Koreans to stifle their nuclear arms-building activities has not gained much ground.
What China does not want is US dominance of the whole Korean Peninsula. The fear of US hegemony prompted China to insert tide-turning Chinese forces into the Korean War in 1950. What China and North Korea want in the short run is a reduction in the future US military presence and activities in South Korea.
Quiet talks -- to include representatives of the new, more conciliatory South Korean president, Moon Jae-in -- could include discussion of such measures. Emphasis could be thus shifted away from concentration on possible US military action against North Korea to an international effort to calm spirits in the region.
North Korea is sandwiched on a peninsula between China and a vigorous, democratic, prosperous South Korea, which has hosted a token US military presence since the 1950s. The American presence there, standing in the path of Korean reunification, is very much in need of serious review.
