This is the last installment in a series of interviews with prominent US scholars on the upcoming South Korea-US summit and the alliance. -- Ed.

Despite their differences over North Korea and a US anti-missile shield, a US expert said President Moon Jae-in and his US counterpart Donald Trump should not refrain from exchanging their “respective and preferred” views when they meet for a summit Friday. 

Bonnie Glaser, a senior adviser for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, asserted such an approach would help the allies strengthen their leverage in dealing with North Korea and China over Pyongyang’s nuclear program.

“It is essential that Presidents Moon and Trump discuss their respective visions for the Korean Peninsula and their preferred strategies for achieving their objectives,” Glaser told The Korea Herald in an email interview.

“South Korean and American interests will be further enhanced if (they) coordinate their strategies and share the same goals. ... Failure to do this will result in gains for North Korea, as well as for China, which seeks to weaken the US-ROK alliance.”


On his flight to Washington, Moon proposed a step-by-step approach to the North’s nuclear issue, with Pyongyang first freezing its nuclear and long-range missile programs and then progressing to complete denuclearization, in return for “compensation” from Seoul and Washington. Moon did not reveal what incentives he is envisioning to persuade Pyongyang to consider such a plan.

Glaser was skeptical of Moon’s proposal, saying Pyongyang’s suspension of nuclear tests is insufficient to restart dialogue and that the allies have little to offer Pyongyang in return during the negotiation process.

“I agree that denuclearizing North Korea, if possible to achieve, will take a long time. ... (But) suspension of nuclear tests is not sufficient. Continued progress in both nuclear and missile programs pose a threat to the region and to the United States,” Glaser said.

“Negotiations are probably not completely off the table, but are unlikely to occur unless North Korea clearly signals a willingness to alter its behavior, freeze its missile and nuclear tests, and eventually return to its commitments (to abandoning its nuclear weapons program).”

Although the White House said that the summit would not discuss the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system as an official agenda item, the issue might be brought up as a part of the allies’ strategy to counter Pyongyang’s ballistic missile threats.

The controversy over THAAD has intensified since Moon decided to halt its deployment last month. Despite Moon’s reassurance he would honor the allies’ agreement to station it in South Korea, doubts have persisted in Washington over Moon’s intentions.

Glaser is of the opinion that Moon’s decision to suspend the THAAD deployment for an environmental impact review will only prolong “the inevitable” and serves the interests of neither Seoul nor Washington.

“Whoever opposes the deployment in South Korea will probably not be mollified by the environmental assessment. Moon should simply make a decision to complete the deployment immediately,” said Glaser.

Glaser also stressed that the death of Otto Warmbier, a 22-year-old US university student who was released in a coma after a 17-month imprisonment in North Korea, will have a significantly negative impact on US-North Korea relations.

Frustrated with the North’s mistreatment of US citizens and relentless military provocations, the Trump administration could pursue “unilateral means” to pressure Pyongyang, rather than relying on China to do so, the scholar predicted.

“The American people are increasingly becoming aware of the horrible nature of the North Korean regime. ... His death has reinvigorated efforts to prevent Americans from traveling to North Korea and to further strengthen international sanctions,” she said.

“Trump has become frustrated in the lack of progress and he is now ready to put more pressure on North Korea through unilateral means. In the coming weeks, it is likely that Trump will impose secondary sanctions on Chinese companies that are facilitating North Korea’s illicit activities.”

Regarding the idea of holding an inter-Korean summit to negotiate a nuclear deal with Pyongyang, Glaser expressed skepticism, warning that the North’s leader might portray the summit as a recognition of North Korea as a legitimate nuclear state and use the encounter to further bolster his legitimacy at home.

“Rather than hold such a high-level meeting (with) Kim Jong-un, I favor negotiations in a four-party or six-party format aimed at reaching an understanding on the reciprocal, sequenced steps that all sides should take to promote peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula,” she said.

By Yeo Jun-suk (jasonyeo@heraldcorp.com)