Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Washington and met with President Donald Trump on Monday. It is easy to see why the president is paying attention to this Indian leader. He is clearly in the same league of world leaders as China’s Xi Jinping; Russia’s Vladimir Putin, whom Trump has not yet met with as president; Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan; and Germany’s Angela Merkel.
Indian-American economic and commercial involvement is plain to see, although Trump’s emphasis on trying to sell India military equipment seems to be something of a mis-emphasis. The United States is India’s best customer for its exports. America is the fourth-largest supplier of India’s imports; China is first.
Given America’s continuing involvement in its now 16-year-old war in Afghanistan, it is necessary for Trump to be aware of the geopolitics of South Asia in his interactions with Modi. India continues to see Pakistan as its primary enemy in the region. Both nations have nuclear weapons. There is some rivalry between them for influence in Afghanistan. In general, the United States continues to see some of Pakistan’s government and military tie-in to the Taliban, the nominal opponent of the Ashraf Ghani government that we support, as unhelpful. Some would even say Pakistan is indispensable to the Taliban. But America is obliged to watch Pakistan closely for a variety of reasons.
There is also to keep in mind the simmering rivalry between two of the behemoths of Asia, China and India, both with populations over 1 billion. There was war in the past, and continuing sometime incidents between them, most recently Tuesday in Sikkim. China, too, has nuclear weapons. Both its leader, Xi, and Modi also have big ambitions, for themselves and for their countries.
In seeking to sell India more weapons, Trump is not splashing around in the baby pool and should take great care to weigh whatever he promises to Modi in the context of both South Asian and overall Asian politics. That said, his developing a relationship with Modi is very much worth the trouble.
