North Korea presents what is perhaps America’s most dangerous and urgent dilemma at the moment. So what should the Trump administration do?
Here is the problem. The Pyongyang regime of leader Kim Jong-un, pretty much a one-trick pony with that steed being its nuclear weapon-missile program, has proved itself over the years to be very hard to deal with. Six-party talks, including South Korea, North Korea, China, Japan, Russia and the United States, haven’t worked. Various palliative, conciliatory approaches to North Korea by various South Korean regimes haven’t worked either.
Now, there is a situation where the United States is carrying out joint military exercises with South Korea across the border and has pulled up an aircraft carrier battle group and a nuclear-armed submarine in the region, while Kim shoots off memorial rockets and carries out his own military exercise in the north, putting everyone, including neighboring China and Japan, on edge.
Nobody doubts that the United States could annihilate North Korea in a war. It is even quite possible that America already possesses technology that can hamstring North Korea’s military enterprises. There is some ugly suspicion that Trump might like a war to establish his own credibility as president, although that would be remarkably irresponsible. However, the field is particularly open to diplomacy at the highest level, giving Kim, Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping the opportunity to put lots of points on the board for leadership, at home as well as abroad.
So here’s what could happen: Trump asks Xi to set up a meeting in Beijing at which Kim and he meet as guests of Xi to establish peace and avoid war on the Korean Peninsula. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin could be invited, but it is probably best not to since the gathering would then seem to Kim like the neighbors ganging up on him, resembling the collapsed six-party talks. South Korea is awaiting presidential election, the spot vacant after an impeachment ordeal, and can be left out on that basis.
Kim gets the serious recognition he clearly wants. Xi looks like the peace-seeking big dog of the neighborhood. Trump looks like the wise leader who used his new prestige to bring peace and avoid war, even while America’s muscle remains visible. With such talks set up, underway or completed successfully, everyone could sleep much better.
