The diplomatic crisis between Malaysia and North Korea is unlikely to end soon. The tension may drag on for months or even longer.
First, North Korea bans nine staff and family members of the Malaysian Embassy in North Korea from leaving the country, treating them as hostages. The government has to rescue them through negotiations.
Negotiation is a draining task. The main reason for North Korea to “hold” Malaysians is to claim Kim Jong-nam’s body in order to destroy the evidence of Kim Jong-nam’s death caused by VX nerve agent.
On the other hand, Malaysia insists on complying with international law and regulation. It would have to also consider the safety of nine Malaysians in North Korea. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may resort to other tactics, too. Malaysia may seek China’s help in mediation if the negotiation hits a snag. Kim Jong-un is not an easy person to deal with.
Taking the Malaysians’ safety into consideration, the government has since adjusted its tough stand against North Korea where it had canceled visa-free entry for North Koreans, deportation of the only North Korean suspect in Kim Jong-nam’s murder, Ri Jong-chol, expulsion of North Korean Ambassador to Malaysia Kang Chol and at once the North Korean Embassy in Malaysia was sealed off. After the “hostage crisis” surfaced, the government then began to spare the rats in order to save the dishes.
Secondly, authorities also require time to complete their investigation and prosecution of Kim Jong-nam’s murder. Police have charged two foreign women, but two other North Korean suspects -- Hyon Kwang-song, second secretary at the North Korean Embassy, and Kim Uk-il, an Air Koryo staff member, are still in the North Korea Embassy in Malaysia. Unless Malaysia and North Korea sever diplomatic ties or shut down the embassy, police are unable to carry out arrests in the embassy.
Contents of the negotiation may include the whereabouts of North Korean suspects. Pyongyang would not let its people end up with the Malaysian police. There may be some obstacles here.
Thirdly, how to handle Kim Jong-nam’s body? His son Kim Han-sol has appeared on YouTube. Apparently his mother and younger sister were worried for their safety and did not dare come to Kuala Lumpur. They sought help from secret group Cheollima Civil Defense to hide.
Even if the authorities secured the DNA to confirm the deceased was indeed Kim Jong-nam, who is claiming the body? The murder, which caught international attention, involved the application of a banned chemical weapon. The remains would have to be handed over to an international agency for examination as grounds for the United Nations to impose further sanctions on North Korea.
Malaysia has stated that once investigations and other legal process are completed, it would share related evidence with international authorities. This would take time.
Reflecting on the incident, Kim Jong-un’s decision to assassinate his elder half brother at this time is not an impromptu move, but a careful consideration. China needs North Korean communism to counter military threats from the United States, South Korea and Japan. Making the move now, it did not fear offending China.
Despite China being keen to back Kim Jong-nam, who was more obedient, to replace Kim Jong-un, China would not fall out with Kim Jong-un following Kim Jong-nam’s death. The interest of a nation would be more important here.
Kim Jong-un is fully aware of the conflicts among China, South Korea and Japan. It fired four missiles from its base near the border between North Korea and China, which landed in seas near Japan, 1,000 kilometers away from a base. South Korea responded with the deployment on the Korean Peninsula of the US’ Terminal High Altitude Area Defense anti-missile system, which China fears will be used for spying within Chinese territory. This has threatened the security of China and hence China needs North Korea as an ally.
Kim Jong-un’s continuous move to launch missiles is intended to provoke clashes among China, Japan and South Korea. He stands a chance to escape from the blame of murdering his elder brother.
The ban imposed by the Chinese government against South Korea has also prompted Chinese people to boycott Lotte. This inadvertently would harm the China-South Korea economy.
China-South Korea ties are at a low point. Kim Jong-un is extremely happy.
Tension on the Korean Peninsula may change with political developments. For instance, South Korean President Park Geun-hye has been removed and this will be followed by an election in the country within two months. THAAD and a Chinese ban against South Korea would be issues in the election. China’s strong nationalism would aggravate Japan’s anti-China sentiment, giving rise to the extreme right in the country. The crazy and yet cunning Kim Jong-un would be able to take advantage in the complicated environment.
Malaysia has been embroiled in the battle of giants and it has to beware of a thuggish nation resorting to dirty tactics. Due to its limited resources, it can only protect its own interests. The softening of its tough stance is reasonable.
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By Lim Sue Goan
The article was published in the Sin Chew Daily published in Malaysia. -- Ed.
