With former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon dropping out of the race, the dynamics in the South Korean presidential contest have shifted significantly.  

While liberal Moon Jae-in is holding onto his strong lead despite a slight dip in the polls, the nation’s acting President and Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn appears to be the biggest beneficiary of Ban’s unexpected exit from contention Wednesday. 

In the latest poll, conducted after Ban’s surprise announcement and released Thursday by Realmeter, Hwang saw his support jump to 12.1 percent, placing himself second only to Moon. With a remarkable 7.5 percentage point rise in less than a week, the acting president rose to second place, formerly held by the UN top official. 

South Chungcheong Province Gov. An Hee-jung of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea also received a surprising poll boost, garnering 11.1 percent support. He took the third place. 

Moon’s popularity fell slightly to 26.1 percent from 29.1 percent last week. 

Of the three, only An has formally announced his presidential bid. 

Moon is thought to be gauging the best timing to announce his candidacy, but Hwang has not yet made clear whether he plans to run. Political pundits say he appears to be harboring presidential ambitions, making significant decisions as the acting president filling in for the impeached President Park Geun-hye.Rep. Woo Sang-ho, the floor leader of the Democratic Party, proposed in his speech at the National Assembly on Thursday a broad liberal coalition, suggesting the center-left People’s Party work with his own. 

“If the Democratic Party and People’s Party form a unified front, many political pundits say a liberal victory is a virtual certainty,” he said. 

People’s Party’s counterpart, Park Jie-won, flatly rejected the proposal, saying Moon’s lead would not last long. 

“I have said this before but am repeating it again. That will never happen,” he said. “Once President Park’s impeachment is confirmed, we will see Moon’s lead disappear. Voters who disapprove of Moon will turn to our candidate.” 

The party’s joint founder and potential presidential candidate Ahn Cheol-soo is also expected to benefit from Ban’s departure from the race. 

“The election dynamics are changing and Ban’s dropout can be seen as an opportunity for Ahn, as Ban and Ahn had somewhat similar centrist stances in politics. He can differentiate himself from other candidates now,” Myongji University politics professor Kim Hyung-joon said. 

Ahn has held support ratings of about 10 percent, with the latest figure standing at 9.3 percent in Wednesday’s Realmeter poll.

President Park, impeached by the National Assembly on Dec. 9, is suspended from duty, pending a final verdict from the Constitutional Court on her fate. If the top court finalizes her impeachment, an election to pick a successor must be held within 60 days.

If acting President Hwang decides to run in the election, he would have to resign from his prime ministerial position at least a month before the election to declare his run. 

Calls are rising inside the beleaguered ruling Saenuri Party to push for Hwang’s candidacy in the presidential race, as Hwang is seen as the party’s best shot at salvaging its election chances after President Park’s scandal-ridden demise.
Other conservative candidates include Reps. Yoo Seong-min and Nam Kyung-pil of the splinter Bareun Party, which broke from Saenuri last December after the faction clashed with the party’s leadership of Park loyalists. 

The approval rates of the two presidential hopefuls edged up after Ban’s dropout but are still weak, with Yoo’s standing at 4.3 percent and Nam’s, 2 percent, falling far behind Hwang and other liberal candidates. 

Since his return to South Korea on Jan. 12, Ban had not been affiliated with any political party, thereby letting loose of his supporters to drift to presidential candidates across the aisle.

As voting results are often seen as to be swayed by regionalism in South Korea, many of Ban’s supporters were thought to have come from the Chungcheong Province from which he hailed. If following this regional tendency, these voters may gravitate toward the Chungcheong Province-based candidate An.

Opinions are divided over whether Ban’s exit help Moon’s chances. A competitor from the same party, Seongnam Mayor Lee Jae-myung predicted it may even harm his support.

“Though Moon is currently the No. 1 candidate of the left wing, he will have to hit a ceiling (in his support rate),” Lee said in a local radio broadcast on Thursday. “Moon is indeed in a dominant position now, but has some limits to expanding the range of his supporters.”

By Jo He-rim (herim@heraldcorp.com)