The new Donald Trump administration has said it plans to build a “state-of-the-art” missile defense system, fanning speculation over its impact on Washington’s North Korea policy and ongoing project to station a missile defense system in South Korea.

Within minutes of his swearing-in, the White House issued a statement, saying the new MD system would help defend against threats from countries such as North Korea and Iran.

The presidential office did not elaborate on whether and how the envisioned missile defense system would differ from the existing one. But the statement has gained attention as it may impact his predecessor Barack Obama administration’s decision to station a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery here this year, which is designed to shoot down an incoming missile from the North.


The real estate billionaire and reality TV star has not yet mapped out his vision for North Korea policy, but he questioned the effectiveness of Washington’s present MD program on campaign trail. The systems such as those located in Japan have been “there for a long time, and now they’re practically obsolete, in all fairness,” he told The New York Times in July.

Given China’s ferocious objection to the THAAD installation and the US’ calls for China to tighten the screws on the Kim Jong-un regime, the Trump leadership may offer some room for a negotiation, observers say.

Seoul and Washington, for instance, could possibly induce a breakthrough step from Beijing to pull the plug on Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs in exchange for a conditional delay or halt in the costly THAAD deployment.

“In terms of North Korea alone, I believe Trump could be an opportunity factor,” a senior Seoul diplomat said on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

“I think we would be able to pay a little more defense costs as he wishes, though it would require shrewd negotiations. But his mindset and cost-conscious approach to security issues may bring a whole different result to what a Hilary Clinton would have otherwise done, as long as he doesn’t press China too much.”

The official’s remarks highlighted the opportunities and challenges the Trump administration is set to pose to South Korea, as he is forecast to take an unconventional course toward not only Pyongyang’s military program but also the two countries’ decades-old alliance.

During his inauguration address Friday, the president vowed to “reinforce old alliances,” while displaying skepticism over the country’s overseas security commitments.

“For many decades, we’ve enriched foreign industries at the expense of American industries, subsidized the armies of other countries while allowing for the very sad depletion of our military. We’ve defended other nation’s borders while refusing to defend our own, and spent trillions of dollars overseas while America’s infrastructure has fallen into disrepair and decay,” he said.

“We will seek friendship and goodwill with the nations of the world -- but we do so with the understanding that it is the right of all nations to put their own interests first.”

That means with his “America First” mantra, Seoul will likely have to brace for Washington’s demands for a sharp rise in its share of defense costs in addition to a potential renegotiation of a bilateral free trade pact.

The administration’s Defense Secretary James Mattis said during his confirmation hearing last week that while reaffirming the US treaty commitment, he expects “our allies and partners to uphold their obligations as well.” Secretary of State nominee Rex Tillerson has also said the country “cannot look the other way at allies that do not meet their obligations.”

As concerns grow over North Korea’s fresh provocation, a perhaps greater cause of concern is South Korea’s leadership vacuum. With President Park Geun-hye’s duties on hold, the country’s election calendar hinges on the Constitutional Court, which is currently deliberating on her impeachment.

Speculation is rising that the Kim regime may stage a major provocation to take advantage of transitional uncertainties in Seoul and Washington. In his New Year speech, the young leader said his country was in the “final stage” of preparations for an intercontinental ballistic missile test.

Victor Cha, the Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who is currently being mentioned for a senior East Asia affairs post at the State or Defense Departments, expressed concerns about the current lack of a “sustainable leadership” in South Korea to handle challenges together with Washington.

During a speech last Wednesday in Seoul, Cha said North Korea would pose a “crisis” to the Trump administration such as by attempting to show off its missile capability to reach the US mainland, which ought not to be met with a “passive” attitude.

By Shin Hyon-hee (heeshin@heraldcorp.com)