No one would say it out loud just yet, but the competition for the next presidency has already begun.

However, the dilemma for all presidential hopefuls is that they can’t declare their candidacy until the impeachment trial of President Park Geun-hye reaches a conclusion.

Those who currently do not hold official government or political posts seems less hesitant in making public appearances.

Among them are former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and former leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Moon Jae-in. Both are the top two candidates speaking for the conservative camp and the left-leaning opposition, respectively.

Ban, who made his grand return back home on Thursday, visited the southeastern region on Monday as part of his plan to befriend the public before deciding his presidential bid.

“(The country) can promote exports through summit diplomacy and other diplomatic channels,” the former top diplomat told workers of Daewoo Shipbuilding & Maritime Engineering, the nation’s No. 2 shipbuilder.

Underlining his 10 years as top UN official, Ban vowed to achieve success for the financially distressed shipbuilding industries and for the nation, should he be given the opportunity.
He also pointed out a series of the incumbent government’s policy mishaps, among which was an extensive revamping program for the nation’s ailing shipbuilding and shipping industries.

Though his trip to Geoje, as well as neighboring Busan, was largely taken as carrying a political message, his aides continued to downplay such speculations, saying it was just “part of his onsite tour to listen to citizens’ thoughts.”

Later this week, he is slated to visit Paengmok Port in Jindo, South Jeolla Province, the site near where the Sewol ferry sank in 2014. The visit to the area has often been deemed a political move to address the issue and to appeal to the progressive-leaning public.

Former opposition chief Moon, who has been expanding his campaigns during Ban’s absence, set to adding momentum to his leading trend.

In most polls, Moon‘s approval rating temporarily faltered during the few days following Ban’s return but regained its swing over the weekend.

A key point for Moon is likely to be the publication of his book Tuesday, which his aides described as “elucidating Moon’s political vision to create an entirely new nation.”

But neither Moon nor Ban are officially registered as presidential candidates, mostly due to the uncertainty of the ongoing impeachment trial.

The current Public Official Election Act states that those aspiring for the presidency may register themselves, starting from 24 days ahead of the actual voting day.

Also, both frontrunners are held back by the risk that their excessive ambition for presidency may trigger a backlash from undecided voters.

On the other hand, minority figures, especially those currently holding elected government posts, face another challenge.

According to the election law, an incumbent chief of a provincial government is to step down from the post at least 90 days ahead of the presidential election, in order to qualify as a candidate.

Despite the claim that an exception should be made in case of an earlier-than-planned election on impeachment, it remains that mayors and governors who aspire for presidency are to pick the right date for resignation.

Of such figures are Gyeonggi Gov. Nam Kyung-pil, who is scheduled to announce his bid next Wednesday. Nam will be competing for the candidate nomination of the new conservative Bareun Party against Rep. Yoo Seong-min.

Speaking for the progressive camp is Seongnam Mayor Lee Jae-myung, Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon, and South Chungcheong Gov. An Hee-jung.

The earlier they confirm their participation in the race, the better chance they will have to gear up for their campaign. But in such a case, they may face blame for giving up on their elected post for the sake of their own political interest.

At the peak of such blame -- and dilemma -- is Prime Minister and acting President Hwang Kyo-ahn.

Hwang, who is currently replacing suspended President Park, has increasingly been mentioned as a plausible man to represent the ruling Saenuri Party, which has been reeling in the aftermath of Park’s suspension.

Reflecting related speculations, local pollster Gallup Korea has recently decided to exclude Seoul Mayor Park from its list of potential presidential, and to include Hwang instead.

By Bae Hyun-jung (tellme@heradlcorp.com)