The Park Geun-hye scandal has posed increased uncertainty over the economy, while the finance and business sectors are pinning hopes on the passage of a parliamentary bill to impeach her, to be voted on at 2 p.m. Friday. The vote could be delayed in the day -- the expiration date of the regular session of the Assembly -- or to another day for an extraordinary session later.
A voting down of the motion means anarchy. Its passage means uncertainty lifting to an extent, as the nation could to start to make up for the de facto administrative vacuum that has persisted since Oct. 24, when Park’s irregularities were exposed.
If the Assembly impeaches Park, the Cabinet led by the coming acting President Hwang Kyo-ahn should hasten its move to map out contingency plans to deal with negative external factors during the next few weeks -- when the Constitutional Court will review the motion.
The nation’s gasoline prices climbed for the 11th consecutive day to reach 1,435 won ($1.22) per liter on Wednesday in the wake of the OPEC members’ accord on reducing petroleum output in late November. The rising international crude prices are undoubtedly a heavy burden on local households and a large portion of businesses.
The price of Dubai crude, which still makes up the bulk of South Korean imports, is hovering at $52 a barrel, the highest level in 16 months. It had ranged between $25 and $35 barrel a year earlier.
The nation will face another crucial factor next week, which may directly shock the financial market and weaken households’ purchasing power: the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision, which is scheduled for Dec. 13-14.
There is a high possibility that the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee will raise its base rate this month, as the majority of investment banks forecast, following the previous hike in December 2015.
It is true that risks from a US rate hike had already sufficiently been reflected in the market since early this year, which has been a key factor hampering a bullish equity market. Stocks were swayed by the remarks from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and her colleagues.
Sufficient time for preparation could restrict the effects of a hike on the main bourse and other economic indexes. Nonetheless, the market will be sensitive to the size of the hike from the current level of 0.25-0.5 percent per annum and Yellen’s comments shortly after the meeting.
A gradual hike by 25 basis points and a dovish stance for the coming months would be a favorable factor for the Korean market. Otherwise, South Korea could see aggressive capital outflows and a rapid weakening of its currency.
A core concern lies in household debt, which would face higher interest burdens. If the US chooses to raise the rate, the Bank of Korea would have no choice but to follow suit in a bid to minimize a variety of side effects involving foreign investors’ pulling out their funds.
The Bank of Korea’s monetary policy committee will convene on Dec. 15, when the result of the Fed meeting will be publicized in the local market.
It is time for the BOK to start normalization of the key rate, which has stayed at a record-low of 1.25 percent. Simultaneously, it needs to contemplate the mortgages issued to many households in the aftermath of the policy to boost the real estate sector since 2014.
Though the nation had needed a stimulus to revitalize the economy, it is undeniable that a series of rate cuts by the central bank over the past two years has triggered a variety of potential risks. A main risk is that heavy mortgage debt is curbing private consumption. More serious is the possibility that the housing bubble will burst.
A soft landing in housing prices and consumer debt is required via gradual rate hikes, though the BOK has already failed to preempt the US actions to retrieve dollars.
In addition, investigators and lawmakers need to look into whether Park’s civilian confidants, including Choi Soon-sil, meddled in state monetary and property policies.
