In the wake of the Park Geun-hye scandal, the nation may face its seventh referendum next year. However, the possibility of this happening is very low.
Nevertheless, it is feasible that the Saenuri Party will aggressively push for constitutional amendments -- as many of its lawmakers and Park have mentioned so far -- in a desperate bid to keep the presidency from being transferred to liberal hands.
The ruling party, which has 129 parliamentary seats of the total 300, could propose a bill on revising some constitutional clauses if it garners coordination from the runner-up opposition People’s Party, whose number of seats is 38. The requirement is a majority of 151.
The People’s Party, which is supporting the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea’s move to impeach Park, simultaneously has not shown skepticism about the amendments. Some in the party have already echoed Saenuri colleagues, though they said the impeachment should come first.
The president is also entitled to propose the bill solely without consent of the National Assembly, but chances are quite slim given the furious public sentiment toward her.
The scenario of an amendment motion is assumed to coincide with the Saenuri argument that Park step down in April, rather than immediately.
The party claims the April resignation timetable comes “in consideration of the impeachment procedures” involving accepting or denial of the Constitutional Court. This is nonsense, given that its leaders’ struggle to block a parliamentary passage of the coming impeachment motion.
It is either just a negotiation card to prevent Park’s duties from being halted or a calculation over the amendment procedure that requires four to five months at the least.
A constitutional revision is very difficult to achieve as a bill should be approved by two-thirds of Assembly members, and by the majority of votes among the attending citizens in the following referendum.
Saenuri, nonetheless, could exploit the amendment scheme as a way to get off the hook by killing the clock, regardless of its success. This is due to one of its reported political aims to delay the presidential election as much as possible amid the record-low approval rating of the party from the Park scandal.
Kim Moo-sung, a leader of Saenuri, said Thursday there was no need for the Assembly to resort to impeachment if lawmakers agree to recommend Park quit in “late April.” Park had said she would follow a resignation timetable, set by the Assembly. Kim is reportedly one of the figures supporting constitutional amendments to the Parliamentary-initiated Cabinet system.
Likewise, presidential hopeful Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party has little chance of beating contender Moon Jae-in of the main opposition Democratic Party, as the nation has to conduct the presidential election within two months of Park’s departure.
An Assembly passage of the coming impeachment motion in early December may be linked to the election of the next president as early as late March via a fast-track decision of the Constitutional Court. Park Han-chul, president of the court, ends his term on Jan. 31.
Park, whose approval rating is 4 percent, and Saenuri, currently third in the party approval ranking, are taking a gamble in front of the people demanding an immediate resignation or fast impeachment. Furious citizens say that her ouster will be determined by the people, not by Saenuri.
It no longer looks certain that some “sensible” Saenuri lawmakers will participate in impeaching her after Park handed over her fate to the Assembly. Irrespective of their voting result, opposition parties should propose the impeachment bill immediately.
Voting down the bill means the resignation of leaders in the Democratic Party. More significantly, it could mean Saenuri is full of fake conservatives, who abandon the Constitution-based lawmakers’ duties, entrusted by their voters.
Park breached the Constitution as the state leader. And she abruptly raised the necessity of its amendments on TV on Oct. 24, when cable channel JTBC revealed the influence-peddling of her civilian friend Choi Soon-sil.
This is the criminal suspect-led amendment mode. The People’s Party needs to be prudent.