And so it is, President Trump. Election night 2016 saw one of the biggest political upsets in American history as anger at the establishment carried Donald Trump to a sweeping victory in the Electoral College. Trump’s strength helped Republicans retain control of both houses of Congress and expand their position in state governorships and legislatures. The Republican Party is now the strongest it has been since 1928.
Reaction to the election has been as intense as the campaign before it. Stock markets around the world have rallied on hopes that Trump’s economic policies will stir stronger economic growth. The dollar has also rallied on the expectation of greater growth and interest rate hikes in the US.
Protests have broken out in many US cities to condemn Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric during the campaign. Overseas, Trump’s victory was treated with trepidation as many countries worry about the rise of protectionism and possible changes in relations with the US. Trump has spoken to many foreign leaders to assuage their fears, but has done little to quell the protests in the US.
From a broad historical perspective, Trump’s victory is stunning. Until he entered the Republican primaries in 2015, he has never held elective or public office. He has no military experience. Every other president since 1789 had either run for elective office, held public office, or had military experience. Every losing candidate had a similar background of experience.
Trump ran as a Republican, but the party establishment ignored him. None of the former Republican presidents endorsed him and neither did the two most recent losing candidates. George W. Bush did not vote for president and there were rumors that his father George H.W. Bush was going to vote for Hillary Clinton. Wealthy Republican campaign donors shunned him, leaving him to rely on his own funds and small donations.
With the exception of 2008 and 2012, every presidential election in the US since 1980 had a Bush or a Clinton on the ballot as a presidential or vice presidential candidate. Trump’s victory over Jeb Bush in the Republican primaries and Hillary Clinton in the general election ended the Bush and Clinton dynasties.
Trump’s victory without the support of the political establishment puts him the company of Andrew Jackson and Abraham Lincoln whose victories represented broader social change. In 1828, Andrew Jackson won election as the first president born in a state not part of the original 13 colonies; his election symbolized the westward movement of the nation. In 1860, Abraham Lincoln was the first Republican president and his election marked the rise of a new anti-slavery party based in the rapidly industrializing north.
What does Trump represent? Most commentators have focused on the overwhelming support he received from rural and blue-collar white voters. Some have interpreted this as a populist uprising against well-off globalist elites. Others have interpreted it as a “white nationalist” rejection of the multicultural vision of the country espoused by Barack Obama.
Both arguments are correct. Trump’s critique of free-trade deals no doubt helped in the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin that have not gone Republican since 1988. His demagogic rhetoric on immigrants, Muslims, and other groups no doubt appealed to latent racism in white voters searching for scapegoats.
At heart, Trump represents the assertion of a bygone vision of the US and the world. Like his campaign slogan “Make America Great Again,” it is essentially backward looking. It harks back to the time when blue-collar jobs offered entrance into the middle class, when white was the de facto norm that did not need to share space with others, when the US could impose its will on other nations in the name of winning the Cold War with the Soviet Union.
The problem for Trump is that the past cannot be recreated. Protectionism may bring back a few blue-collar jobs, but it also creates inflation and hurts export industries. White nationalism may feel good to some, but it ignores the emerging multicultural reality and undermines social cohesion. The Cold War has been replaced by a multipolar world that faces the common threat of climate change.
Meanwhile, globalization continues to bring the world closer together, creating winners and losers in the process. No president can stop globalization and the technological advances that have made it possible; history marches on.
The real meaning of Donald J. Trump is a nostalgic break from the present that serves as a prelude to yet a future-looking break coming soon. Those who want to influence the future based on the realities of the times should get to work now.
By Robert J. Fouser
Robert J. Fouser, a former associate professor of Korean language education at Seoul National University, writes on Korea from Ann Arbor, Michigan. He can be reached at kagoshimabob@gmail.com. -- Ed.