As Iraqi troops battle Islamic State group fighters street by street in the northern city of Mosul, another crucial phase in the bid to neutralize the militant group is shaping up 370 kilometers to the west. A joint Kurdish-Arab militia has begun encircling Raqqa, the Islamic State group’s de facto capital in Syria. It wasn’t long ago that IS had all the momentum, seizing swaths of land in Iraq and Syria. Now the group is being squeezed in two strongholds by simultaneous offensives.
The strategy makes sense. As IS relinquishes its hold on Mosul, its fighters will flee west into Syria. But Raqqa, their home base, will be sealed off by Kurdish and Arab fighters, and therefore untenable as a safe haven. No one knows how long it will take to free Raqqa, but once IS has been routed, the militant group will be without its nerve center.
It all sounds straightforward and easy, but it won’t be. Complications abound. First, the militia moving on Raqqa, the Syrian Democratic Forces, is a tenuous coupling of Syrian Kurd and Syrian Arab fighters. Yes, they have a common enemy in IS, but historically they are adversaries. Arabs don’t want to be governed by Kurds, and vice versa. The plan is for the SDF’s Arab contingent to take the lead in the battle for Raqqa once fighting begins inside the city. That would allay fears Arabs in Raqqa have of a Kurdish takeover.
But will the Kurds acquiesce? They have already established a semiautonomous region across northern Syria, and have visions of a trans-border Kurdish state encompassing the northern sections of Iraq and Syria, bookended by Iran on the east and Turkey on the west. The Kurds could move into Raqqa, a northern city, and stay there. That’s exactly what they did when they defeated IS fighters in the town of Manbij, despite assuring the US they would leave once the town was liberated.
It’s not just the Arabs who worry about what the Kurds say versus do. In Turkey, where Kurds are the largest minority, Ankara has been clashing with Kurdish separatists for decades. Turkey adamantly opposes the idea of Kurds at the vanguard of a Raqqa offensive. Turkish leaders have gone so far as to tell the US they wanted Syrian Kurds excluded from the Raqqa effort. But of all the entities battling in Syria, Syrian Kurds have had the most success -- so Washington’s not about to leave Kurds out of the offensive.
Last week, Turkey suggested it could send its own forces to lead the charge into Raqqa. The US hasn’t given Ankara an answer, but that answer should be, “Thank you, but we’ve got it covered.” Turkish forces are already in Syria, and they have clashed with SDF fighters. Throwing Turkish troops into the caldron with Kurdish and Arab fighters risks a spasm of infighting that diverts the mission from its ultimate goal -- defeating the Islamic State group.
Retaking Mosul and Raqqa represent pivotal moments in the fight against the Islamic State. So far, the effort in Mosul is going well. What happens in Raqqa will unfold in coming weeks and months. It could fall on the desk of President-elect Donald Trump, who will be tasked with stewarding a disparate group of players with competing, even conflicting, interests. It won’t be an easy job, ensuring that the unwieldy amalgam defeats the Islamic State group — and not itself.
