Team Trump had it right. Media were biased. Until the last moment they devotedly preached that Hillary would win. But she did not. The Brexiteers had it right too. Experts were duping them. Experts claimed there was no way Brexit would happen, and they lied. It happened. In a strange case of self-fulfilling prophecies, the Brexiteers and Team Trump called it right, and showed that they were on top with their situation-reading skills. They had titillated experts that they were biased and wrong, only to see them become blinded with overconfidence, arrogance and disrespect when responding to the two campaigns, to their detriment. Brexiteers and Trump followers thus exposed how detached the experts were in their maglev towers and analytical labs from the commotion of the ordinary folk -- the marginalized groups omitted from statistical highlights and from under the media radar. The UK Independence Party’s and Team Trump’s hunches were more aligned with the ultimate reality than all “independent” polls.
UKIP and Team Trump managed to energize and mobilize voters, and even soak up energy from the insults hurled at them by their antagonists. Experts unwittingly committed a cardinal offense in prediction: Thou shall not fail to account for the effect of your calls on markets. They mocked Brexiteers and Trump followers loudly as bigots or basket cases, and called the vote for the other side. The prophecy was self-defeating: Brexiteers and Trump followers appropriated their label as underdogs, rebels and vigilantes, and rose up from grassroots in a mighty wave.
People heard from their leaders of unfulfilled promises, of a system rigged in others’ favor, and of wretched prospects under the status quo. Looking around themselves, they found stagnation, lacking opportunities and dependence on foreign producers. Then they heard the highbrow denials from the establishment experts: There were no structural problems, it was a matter of time and people’s motivation to find a job. Foreign interventions were an investment. Who should want bread when cake trade between Washington and Beijing was booming? Reminded by the experts, people put on glasses, looked around themselves again, and again saw only deprivation. United by their branding as defenders of the country, they delivered a firm message: No. Experts and media are dead, long live the media king!
Vladimir Hlasny Associate professor of economics, Ewha Womans University
