A "surgical" US strike aimed at preventing North Korea from perfecting its nuclear capabilities will lead to a "bloodbath" and a full-scale war as China would view such an action as unwarranted and send forces to help the communist neighbor under a defense treaty, an expert said Monday.
John Delury, an assistant professor at Seoul's Yonsei University with expertise on China, made the remark in an article carried by the website 38 North, noting that talk of a military option against the North has gained traction since Pyongyang's fifth nuclear test.
(Yonhap)
"How might Beijing react to a US pre-emptive or surgical strike on the North? ... North Korea is, after all, China's only defense treaty ally in the world, and is obligated to 'immediately render military and other assistance by all means at its disposal' to defend Pyongyang if attacked," Delury said.
The 1961 treaty, even though often trivialized by Chinese academics, remains in force, the professor said, noting that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un praised the pact as a "firm legal foundation" for the bilateral relationship in a message sent to Chinese President Xi Jinping to mark the treaty's 55th anniversary earlier this year.
"If the United States launches a pre-emptive strike not to prevent a specific, imminent missile attack, but rather to prevent North Korea from perfecting an intercontinental nuclear strike capability, it is unlikely to meet Beijing's standard for jus ad bellum (right to war)," Delury said.
"On the contrary, a strike of this nature could likely drive Beijing to side with the North in accordance with their 1961 treaty," he said. "'Surgery' would rapidly descend into a bloodbath. 'Pre-emption' would start a war."
Delury said China firmly believes that any amount of sanctions and pressure, including the use of military force, will not change Pyongyang's behavior in the way the US wants.
"The firm policy of the Chinese government, supported by most foreign policy experts, is that only dialogue and negotiation can moderate North Korea's behavior, and that the best hope for long-term progress lies in the untapped potential of North Korea's economic transformation and regional integration," he said.
Engagement with the North is the best way to win Chinese cooperation, he said.
"If the next US president adopts an engagement strategy, Xi Jinping's government would likely step up its own work to achieve short-term breakthroughs and long-term solutions. Paradoxically, Washington's best chance of getting China to apply constructive pressure on its errant neighbor is through a major US initiative to negotiate with Kim Jong-un." (Yonhap)
