If elected as the next US leader, Hilary Clinton would likely continue to face a tough task in building trust with China due to the sustained strategic refocus toward Asia, while turning more interventionist in the Middle East, leading French security experts told The Korea Herald.

With less than three weeks until the US presidential vote, three specialists from the Institute for Strategic Research, a think tank affiliated with the French Ministry of Defense, explored the prospects for the incoming administration’s foreign policy focusing on Asia -- Jean-Baptiste Jeangene Vilmer, the institute’s head, and Benoit de Treglode and Hugo Meijer. They were visiting Seoul to hold a seminar with the Asan Institute for Policy Studies on Tuesday.
All three pinned high hopes on the Democratic candidate’s win, calling an election of her Republican rival Donald Trump a “disaster” for not only the US, but for the entire world.

The real estate magnate has relayed demands that South Korea, Japan, Germany and other countries shoulder greater financial burden for their security partnerships with the US. He also has vowed to pull out from the World Trade Organization and rethink membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, while tightening immigration checks for the French and German alike.

“If Trump gets elected, this would introduce several elements of unpredictability, in domestic policy, but more importantly for the rest of the world, in foreign policy,” Meijer said in an interview Monday.

“So these elements are a concern not only for friends, but also any country. Allies and even potential rivals of the US might be wondering what comes next.”

But even if Clinton occupies the White House, there will also be some “strategic consequences,” especially in the Middle East, Jeangene Vilmer said, referring to her support for the 2003 invasion in Iraq and 2011 intervention in Libya among others.

“As she is often presented as a liberal hawk,” he said. “So maybe the US will be back on the international stage with more military manifestation than we saw during Obama -- using stealth strategies involving more drones, cyber operations, special forces in a more interventionist way.”

As for Asia, they projected the “rebalancing” strategy to remain largely intact. This means Washington would continue to face thorny tasks over how to manage relations with Beijing.

The policy has fueled suspicion that the US’ strengthening of ties, alliances and strategic partnerships were aimed at containing China. 

Aside from budget woes, another domestic challenge is the fate of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement among 12 Pacific Rim countries that has been deemed a centerpiece of the rebalance. If the US Congress votes against it, it would deal a “major blow” to the administration, they said.

De Treglode, who specialized in the Southeast Asia relations, also noted Vietnam’s recent postponement of its decision on the accord to next year.

Meijer said the relationship between the US and China is “neither a zero-sum game nor a positive sum game” but they should better utilize the ongoing initiatives such as the Strategic and Economic Dialogue and RIMPAC multiparty military exercises to build trust.

“Strategic mistrust is sort of an underlying theme in all of the bilateral agenda. One overarching aim of the US was to try to use areas of cooperation as confidence-building measures,” he said.

“I don’t see it will disappear any time soon. But the point is how to manage the imbalances and all these competing interests and try to maintain the track through cooperation in bilateral and multilateral forms.”

By Shin Hyon-hee  (heeshin@heraldcorp.com)