In July 2000, a Group of Eight summit meeting was held in Nago, Okinawa Prefecture. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who arrived late, spoke to the other world leaders about a meeting he had with then North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang two days before.

According to Putin, Kim suddenly opened a window to look outside during their two-hour talk. It was at that moment that Putin urged him to engage with the international community. “We, the Russian Federation, were born after the Soviet Union was dissolved. Why don’t you go into the outside world?” he said.

At that time, six years had passed since the death of Kim’s father, Kim Il-sung. Kim Jong-il actively became involved in foreign policy after he met Putin.

In June 2000, Kim Jong-il and South Korean President Kim Dae-jung held the first top-level meeting between their nations. Then, in September 2002, Kim Jong-il admitted to Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi that his nation had abducted Japanese nationals. Koizumi was the first Japanese prime minister to visit North Korea.

Considering it took six years for Kim Jong-il to consolidate power as leader and get involved in foreign affairs, it may be time for Chairman of the Workers’ Party of Korea Kim Jong-un to turn his eyes to the outside world. It has been 4 1/2 years since he inherited power from his late father in December 2011.

If Kim Jong-un does turn his attention to the outside world, what kind of foreign policies will be devised by the man who declared North Korea a nuclear power again at its first party congress in 36 years?

A South Korean expert on North Korea, who has influence over the South Korean government’s policy toward the North, said Kim Jong-un could declare a moratorium on testing nuclear bombs.

“We have already successfully fielded nuclear weapons in our country; we do not need another test.” Based on this logic, the expert predicted that Kim Jong-un could start inviting other nations to dialogue, including the United States.

The expert said: “If China, which has close relations with Pyongyang, changes from a policy of sanctions to a policy of dialogue, the effectiveness of sanctions could be weakened and the menace of the North’s nuclear bombs would remain. This would be the worst-case scenario for Japan and South Korea.”

Ri Su-yong, deputy chairman of the Workers’ Party of Korea and a close aide to Kim Jong-un, met Chinese President Xi Jinping on June 1. This was the first meeting between Xi and a member of the North Korean leadership in three years, and while it is still unclear how Ri responded to Xi’s request for the North to denuclearize, it is possible that they engaged in very deep conversation.

The U.S. presidential election will be held in November and South Korea has a presidential election in December next year. The foundations of South Korean President Park Geun-hye’s administration, which has a hard stance on North Korea, are becoming unstable. According to a former South Korean minister, North Korea will start utilizing these external factors to shake up the international community in the near future.

North Korea’s leadership seems to be considering its next move and contemplating the uncertain global situation.

Now is the most important time for countries, including Japan, the United States and South Korea, to cooperate in dealing with North Korea’s moves.

By Kentaro Nakajima

Kentaro Nakajima is an associate professor at the Graduate School of Economics, Tohoku University. --Ed.

(Asia News Network/The Japan News )