North Korea is widely expected to push ahead with a fifth nuclear test ahead of a congress of its ruling Workers’ Party in May, but punitive actions that can be taken against it are limited, as the communist nation is already facing powerful international sanctions.

South Korea’s Defense Ministry on Tuesday said there is a possibility that Pyongyang will carry out a surprise nuclear test, echoing President Park Geun-hye’s remarks that officials have spotted signs of an impending test.

U.S.-based North Korea watch website 38 North said while the Punggye-ri nuclear test site showed little evidence of an imminent test, the North has already demonstrated the ability to conduct a detonation on short notice by concealing significant indicators.

Bruce Klinger, a senior Korea expert at the Heritage Foundation, said that Pyongyang would “of course” conduct the fifth nuclear test and that it was only a matter of time.

The North’s nuclear testing would be in violation of the U.N. resolution that bans it from carrying out any ballistic missile or nuclear programs.

Although the hermit kingdom has never conducted two nuclear tests in the same year, military officials have pointed out that its leader Kim Jong-un’s recent actions have been highly peculiar.

“No country in the world reveals their military secrets to the world, yet Kim himself had showed off what he claims to be a nuclear detonator and test facilities,” said a military official. The North’s state media recently revealed an engine test for its long-range ballistic missiles.

Kim has claimed nuclear strike capacity against Seoul and Washington, and is expected to carry out a nuclear warhead test as the next step.

Experts say that if North Korea does conduct the nuclear test, it will be to decorate its young leader before the party convention.

“The purpose of the testing is threefold. First is to be recognized as a nuclear state; second is to rally the support of its citizens; and third is to pressure the U.S.,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

Last month, the U.N. passed what local officials called the strongest sanctions against the communist country ever in response to its Jan. 6 nuclear test and Feb. 7 long-range rocket launch. Seoul also pulled out of the joint Gaeseong industrial park in February.

“The party convention needs to boast of Kim’s achievements, but between the U.N. sanctions and severed ties between the Koreas, there have been no economic achievements. The only justification to maintain the regime would be its nuclear capacity,” Yang said.

But the South’s military actions are limited in terms of punitive actions. After the January test, Seoul resumed the anti-Pyongyang border broadcasts to pressure the North. It has also slapped the North with separate sanctions.

Observers say China is the key to penalizing the North, as it is the sole major trading partner of the reclusive state.

Kim Sung-han, an international relations professor at Korea University, said that U.N. sanctions need to be strengthened, while China should alert the North that it will cut off fuel supply in case of a fifth nuclear test.

Yang said that if the North does conduct another test, Seoul’s role in alleviating the inter-Korea tensions would be greatly limited. He said this is why the government should retain a channel of communication with Pyongyang.

Although the North appears to be to be on the verge of another nuclear test, Seoul’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kim Hyoung-zhin said that continued pressure from the international community could lead to the Kim regime rethinking its nuclear program.

President Park has maintained that the North’s denuclearization should prelude the resumption of peace talks in the region.

South Korea, the U.S. and Japan on Tuesday held vice-ministerial-level talks where they discussed North Korea‘s denuclearization and sanctions. Seoul’s Vice Foreign Minister Lim Sung-nam hosted the meeting with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Tony Blinken and Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Akitaka Saiki.

In their joint meeting with South Korea’s Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se, Yun said that the dealing with the North’s nuclear and missile programs is “our top priority” and touted the adoption of the U.N. Security Council‘s Resolution 2270 -- which includes sanctions against Pyongyang -- as a “historic milestone.”

He warned that unless North Korea alters behavior, it will suffer “serious consequences.”


By Yoon Min-sik
(minsikyoon@heraldcorp.com)