From
Send to

Need for Korea's rate cut could grow, but effect uncertain: report

March 22, 2016 - 13:49 By KH디지털2

The need for a rate cut may become stronger for Korea as advanced countries continue monetary easing, but whether it will help improve the real economy is questionable, a report from an economic think tank said Tuesday.

"The recent monetary easing policy by key nations, rebound in oil prices and softened worries of the Chinese economy's hard landing helped stabilize the global financial market," the report from LG Economic Research Institute (LGERI), authored by senior researcher Lee Chang-seon, said.


The U.S. Fed freezing its key rate last week and calling for about two rate hikes this year instead of four indicate that it won't be easy for the Fed to raise the rate, the report said, also citing the ECB's rate cut last week and Japan keeping its negative rate as part of the global easing trend.

"With domestic consumption blunted, the continued slowdown in exports and strengthening of the won, this could spur the need for Korea to also lower the rate," Lee wrote in the report.

The Bank of Korea has stood pat after cutting the base rate to a record-low 1.5 percent in June last year. But economic conditions have not been supportive of recovery, with the country's exports on the longest decline streak of 14 consecutive months as of February.

Figures from the customs office on Monday suggest the streak may well continue in March, with exports on customs clearance basis during the first 20 days of the month showing a 19.2 percent fall from the same period last year.

Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol, after the rate-setting meeting in March, said the current rate was adequately "accommodative" and that a rate change may be limited in impacting the real economy given the uncertainties in the external environment.

"The jitters over the global financial market have softened, and as key nations continue to ease their monetary policy and the U.S. Fed delays its rate hike, the external conditions that have blocked further rate cuts appear to be waning," Lee argued in the report.

The author, however, agreed there is no guarantee a rate slash will improve the real economy. If households and companies feel pressed to reduce their debt, or if they cannot find places to invest in, monetary policies may not work as intended, he said.

A rate cut may deter the worsening of the economy, but without fiscal expansion and economic restructuring, it will be restrained in bringing economic recovery, the report said. (Yonhap)