It is almost customary for the world’s mass media to publish lists of the top 10 news events toward the end of each year. I have selected the top 10 issues that have significant implications for the global order and the future of humanity.

First, international and national terrorist organizations have rapidly increased and become more violent and barbaric. According to Wikipedia, there were 176 terrorist organizations in 2014. An absolute majority of them were fundamentalist Islamic organizations, and only a few were tribal, regional or ideological. Islamic organizations are mostly based in the Arab World and Africa, whereas ideological, regional and tribal movements are active in Asia. The countries where the headquarters and support bases of most terrorist movements are located are either premodern or transitional countries undergoing rapid industrialization and modernization, but that reject Westernization and Western democracy. Islamic terrorist movements are especially active in failing states in Africa and the countries that experienced the Arab Spring. This sudden surge of international terrorism poses a great threat to the existing world order, particularly the Western world.

Second, the 21st U.N. conference on climate change has finally adopted a comprehensive agreement. Now, almost all states including developing countries are committed to limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by 2100. Previously, developing countries were exempt from the obligation to reduce their greenhouse-gas emissions. On the other hand, developed countries and rapidly industrializing countries have promised to provide financial support to developing countries to help the latter make the shift to clean energy and cope with the impact of global warming. Now all nations, whether they are developed or developing and whether they are major air polluters or not, climate change has become one of the most important concerns for all nations and humanity. But whether nations fulfill their obligations is far from certain.

Third, the refugee crisis in Europe has become a serious man-made disaster affecting all nations. The number of refugees from Africa, the Middle East (mainly Syria and Iraq) and Asia has increased tremendously. Most of the refugees come from failing states that are former Western colonies. Their home countries are multiethnic or afflicted with religious or sectarian conflicts, and extremely poor. More importantly, their governments are not democratic. It is ironic that those former colonial peoples try to live in their colonial masters’ countries. There are three ideal solutions to the failing state problem: reviving a U.N. trusteeship system; restructuring the multiethnic and multireligious or sectarian states into single ethnic and single religious or sectarian states; and transforming nondemocratic states into democratic states. However, political leaderships and the absolute majority of the people in the failing states will hardly accept such solutions.

Fourth, the global political order dominated by the U.S. continues to erode. Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. has been trying to maintain its predominant position in the world through the maintenance of its superior military force and the propagation of democratic peace and the free market economy. But the global and regional architectures supporting its predominant position such as NATO, the Bretton Woods system, various bilateral alliances and the U.N. have been challenged and eroded by the rising great powers, BRICS, G20 and other non-Western organizations. Particularly, Russia and China have become more and more vocal about U.S. hegemony. Putin and Xi advocate a multipolar world rejecting U.S. unilateralism and strongly uphold the traditional concept of national sovereignty and the principle of nonintervention. Other non-Western countries support these two great powers’ view. In view of this trend, U.S. global leadership will be more and more challenged in the years to come.

Fifth, the Northeast Asian security architecture is changing. The American strategy of rebalancing to Asia is challenged by China and Russia. China believes that rebalancing is equivalent to containment and vehemently opposes it. The U.S. and Japan are now building a new Northeast Asian collective security architecture against China and North Korea. For this purpose, the U.S. has made more intensive efforts to include South Korea in this regional collective security system. Consequently, the Northeast Asian security environment has become more unstable.

Sixth, the global economic and financial order dominated by the U.S. and Western Europe is disintegrating. The WTO, the World Bank and the IMF are being decentralized and the U.S. and Western Europe can no longer dictate world trade, currency exchange and fiscal rules. Bilateral and regional free trade areas continue to increase; BRICS’ Development Bank has come into operation; China has just opened the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank; and China’s yuan has been admitted into the IMF’s special drawing rights lending basket. The IMF will very soon reform its executive board and voting quota system: The representation of Western countries will be reduced, while that of rapidly industrializing countries as well as their voting quotas will be increased.  

Seventh, rapidly developing cyber technology has increased the danger of cybercrime, cyberwar and cyberterrorism. Cyber technology has become a lethal weapon for and against any state, organization or individual.

Eighth, the performance of the U.N. has drastically declined. Since the U.N. is run by member states, the U.N. itself cannot be blamed for its declining performance. Member states are becoming more and more selfish: Premodern states make more demands for the U.N. to help their nation- and state-building, while the great powers increasingly use the U.N. to promote their national interests. Under the circumstances, global community-building through the U.N. is becoming an impossible dream.

Ninth, democratic states suffer from democratic and capitalist deficiencies. An increasing number of democratic states are mired in a deadly power struggle between two extremist factions, right and left, that undermines effective and efficient governance. A majority and a minority cannot reach compromise. Capitalism has enriched countries, but deepened economic inequality within states and between states. Pro-capitalists and anticapitalists are mired in a life and death struggle. Western democracies are suffering from this clash of ideologies more than ever. Democracy and capitalism may not be able to coexist.

Finally, the world is at its least peaceful positionsince 2000. Humanity has become more industrialized and modernized than ever before, but less civilized. The spiritual foundation of Western civilization -- individualism -- and that of Eastern civilization -- authoritarianism -- have reached a dead end. Now, it is time for humanity to find a new ultimate value.

By Park Sang-seek

Park Sang-seek is a former rector of the Graduate Institute of Peace Studies, Kyung Hee University and the author of “Globalized Korea and Localized Globe.” -- Ed.