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BOK forecast to hold key rate steady ahead of U.S. rate hike

Dec. 7, 2015 - 10:21 By KH디지털2

South Korea's central bank is expected to hold its key rate steady for another month as it continues to gauge the impact of previous rate cuts and the impact of what many believe to be an imminent U.S. rate hike on the local economy, a poll showed Monday.
  

In a poll conducted by Yonhap Infomax, the financial news arm of Yonhap News Agency, all 14 economists surveyed projected the Bank of Korea (BOK) to keep its policy rate unchanged at a record low 1.5 percent for December at its monthly rate-setting meeting Thursday.
  

The BOK has kept its key rate frozen at the record low level since June when it delivered the latest and fourth rate cut in less than a year to help bolster growth in Asia's fourth-largest economy.
  

The central bank earlier said the country's gross domestic product expanded 1.3 percent from three months earlier in the third quarter, marking the fastest rate of growth in over five years.
  

The economists noted the strong growth in the July-September period has effectively silenced any voices for an additional rate cut, especially amid growing concerns over a rise in household debt.
  

"The call for a rate cut has lost its justification as the growth rate came in the 1 percent range in the third quarter," said Park Hyeok-soo, a researcher from Daishin Economic Research Institute.
  

"Rather, a need to manage risks is growing due to growing uncertainties in financial markets of newly emerging countries stemming from a U.S. rate hike," Park added.
  

The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin raising its key rate this month, which could prompt a mass outflow of foreign capital from newly emerging market countries, including South Korea, though BOK Gov. Lee Ju-yeol insists the impact from a U.S. rate hike on the nation will be "limited" due to its strong economic fundamentals.
  

Still, prospects of a U.S. rate hike will be enough to have BOK stand pat on its key rate at least to wait and see the actual impact of a U.S. rate hike, Seo Hyang-mi, an analyst from HI Investment & Securities Co. noted.
  

"The Monetary Policy Board is expected to keep the key rate frozen for December. There remains the issue of a U.S. rate hike while... issues over household debt and restructuring prevent active use of monetary policies," she said.
  

The country's household credit came to an all-time high of 1,166.4 trillion won ($1,004.6 billion) as of end-September, which many say could create problems should interest rates begin trending higher.
  

Others said a U.S. rate hike may not warrant a rate hike here, noting the country's financial market is also exposed to changes in other major markets.
  

"The BOK is expected to cut its key rate in March or April of 2016 when Japan's central bank and the People's Bank of China are expected to begin quantitative easing," said Shin Dong-jun, an analyst at Hana Financial Investment Co. (Yonhap)