South Korea is unlikely to attain its per capita income goal of $30,000 by early 2018 in the face of slower than expected economic growth, local think tanks said Wednesday.
  

The pessimistic predictions come as Asia's fourth-largest economy is confronted with a slew of external negatives, including a slowdown in China's growth, a drop in exports and global financial market uncertainties.
  

The finance ministry maintains that a 3.1 percent expansion in real gross domestic product is possible this year, but most other think tanks, and even the Bank of Korea, have downgraded their estimates to the 2 percent range. The central bank said 2.8 percent growth may be reached in 2015, while the LG Economic Research Institute predicted 2.6 percent.
  

Lower growth this year and in 2016 will make it hard for South Korea to reach the $30,000 target in 2017, as originally envisioned by policymakers. At present, the per capita GDP stands at $27,100.
  

"Growth must be maintained at a certain rate if the per capita income is to grow as anticipated," the Korea Economic Research Institute said. "Unless there is a strong rebound, the $30,000 per capita income target may have to be put off till 2018 or afterwards."
  

The date is important for the government because one of President Park Geun-hye's campaign pledges is to reach the benchmark number within her five-year term that will end in late February 2018. The country surpassed the $20,000 per capita mark in 2006.
  

Observers said that at the present pace, it will take 11-12 years for South Korea to become a $30,000 per capita country after breaching the $20,000 mark. This is slower than the United States that made the transition in a decade. Japan and Germany accomplished the same feat in five years, they said.
  

"The recent China shock and exports that contracted 6.3 percent on-year in the eight months of 2015 are all casting shadows on the future," an LGERI researcher said.
  

What is more troubling for South Korea is that with the United States expected to raise its interest rate, the Korean won will likely depreciate against the dollar, which will make it hard for the country to benefit from the effects of positive foreign exchange rates.
  

In late 2014, the Korean currency traded at 1,099.3 won to the greenback, but it might slide to an average of 1,170 won in 2016 from 1,130 won this year.
  

Other observers said that compared to other countries, South Korea is suffering from a distinct disadvantage because its domestic market remains relatively small and consumption weak.
  

Hyundai Research Institute said other countries have reached the $30,000 per capita rank mainly on strong consumption.
  

"South Korea also needs to follow the example set by others with more emphasis on pushing up household income and encouraging more consumer spending," said Lee Yong-hwa, a senior researcher at HRI. (Yonhap)