Aug. 15 marked the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II and the liberation of Korea from Japanese rule. The anniversary forced a look back in time as some took stock of South Korea’s accomplishments while others blamed Japan for not apologizing sufficiently for its past wrongdoings. Few, however, have thought to ponder the next 70 years.

What will the world and Korea look like 70 years from now? 2085 seems like the distant future, but assuming life expectancy patterns hold, most babies born in Korea during the past couple of years will be alive in 2085. A smaller number will live to see the dawn of the 22nd century.

Another way to consider the question is to go back 70 and 140 years before 1945. In 1875, the outline of the power struggle that climaxed in 1945 war forming. All of the major belligerents in World War II were active in or moving toward imperialist expansion. The industrial revolution was in full swing, attracting large numbers of people into crowded and booming cities. Technology was bringing sweeping change in construction, transportation and communication.

In 1875, King Gojong had just forced the conservative anti-foreign Heungseon Daewongun into semi-retirement. One year later, the Japanese would use gunboat diplomacy to force Korea to open three ports to Japanese trade, thus beginning the long process of imperialist incursion that ended in annexation by Japan in 1910.

Going back 140 years to 1805 reveals a different world. Only three of the major World War II belligerents — the U.K., France, and China — were important on the global stage. The U.S. was a new nation with a small population, Germany and Italy had yet to unify, and Japan had closed itself off to the rest of world. The industrial revolution was limited to England, and most nations were rural and agricultural.

In 1805, the activist King Jeongjo’s reign (1776-1800) had stirred a renaissance that included the construction of the Gyujanggak royal library in 1776 and the Hwaseong Fortress in the mid-1790s. Korea sent frequent tributary missions to the Chinese Emperor in Beijing and maintained cordial relations with Japan through goodwill visits to the Tokugawa Shogun in Edo, the last of which would depart in 1811.

Jumping forward to 2015, the post-World War II paradigm remains largely intact. All of major belligerents — China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the U.K., and the U.S. — are still important cultural, economic, and military powers. Indeed, in the 140 years from 1875 to 2015, the same group of nations has dominated world culturally, economically, and politically. Influence and power has shifted among them, but the list has remained the same.

Korea is particularly interesting because it is at once a victim and a beneficiary of this group of powers. The 70 years from 1875 to 1945 Korea was a victim of imperialist power struggles and ended up suffering harsh colonial rule. In the 70 years from 1945 to 2015, Korea used the urban-industrial paradigm to turn itself into one of the most developed nations in the world. That development also fed the long, but ultimately successful, struggle for democracy.

The 1875-2015 paradigm is aging and the outlines of change are beginning to become apparent. The digital revolution is continuing and is now feeding broader changes in society. Centuries-old notions about gender, money, ownership, privacy, and the nation state itself are coming into question. Climate change is forcing a search for new ideas about how economies should be powered. The aging of the population in Europe and Northeast Asia is forcing societies to adapt to demographic conditions unknown in human history.

Korea will face new challenges as the 1875-2015 paradigm fades. The division of Korea, a relic of 1945, will end in reunification. Korea will be larger and more influential, but it will be burdened by an aging population in the aftermath of reunification.

Conventional wisdom today suggests that Korea will find itself in a difficult position as tensions between the U.S. and China rise. As other nations — Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Nigeria come to mind — become more important, the world will become more multipolar. This will help reduce tensions between the U.S. and China and create opportunities for Korea. 

The big wild card, of course, is how new technology will affect society. Who in 1945 could have predicted the Internet? In the end, we just don’t know what babies now will be talking about in 2085.

By Robert J. Fouser

Robert J. Fouser, a former associate professor of Korean language education at Seoul National University, writes on Korea from Ann Arbor, Michigan. -- Ed.