With its courting of North Korea, Russia is adding to complexity in the dynamics on the Korean Peninsula as Seoul seeks to improve its relations with both Cold War foes without creating a rift with Washington.

Moscow has been reaching out to Pyongyang in recent months in an apparent effort to increase its influence in inter-Korean affairs and secure investment from the South in major trilateral economic projects, such as a joint industrial district, railway, gas pipeline and power grid.

With the country celebrating the 70th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany this year, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said he had received “positive” signs that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un would join a ceremony on May 8 in Moscow, which would be Kim’s first overseas trip since taking power in December 2012. 

Yet the outreach poses a dilemma for South Korea.

 

President Park Geun-hye is also invited, so the event may set the stage for an unprecedented meeting with Kim and thus open a chance to break the prolonged stalemate in cross-border ties. It would also likely serve as a much-needed catalyst for her drive for greater Eurasian cooperation, the centerpiece of her third-year diplomatic agenda.

Her participation, in contrast, could hit a raw nerve in Washington at a time when the crisis in Ukraine is reigniting Western tension with Moscow.

In the wake of the annexation of Crimea, stifling sanctions imposed by the West have prompted Russia to turn to the East, bolstering ties with China, India, South Korea and Central Asia.

Confirming that President Barack Obama will be absent, Ben Rhodes, deputy national security adviser at the White House, recently hinted that the U.S. hoped Park would not travel to Russia, stressing the need for “one voice” among allies.

“In terms of our allies around the world, I think the key point we’ve made is that it’s important for the world to speak with one voice on behalf of the principle of respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity and the notion that bigger nations should not be able to bully smaller ones, to redraw maps,” he said at a news conference in Washington last week.

Shepherd Iverson, a professor of the Center for Korean Studies at Inha University in Incheon, said the U.S. was still vital for South Korean interests.

“The penultimate economic and military power in the world is the U.S., and will remain so for some time. The Chinese and South Korean economies are intricately intertwined and depend on Western markets for their success. South Korea ultimately depends on the U.S. for its survival,” he said.

“North Korea is the Ukraine of East Asia.”

Japan, too, has sought to enhance relations with Russia with attempts to resolve a territorial dispute, boost energy imports and invest in the Far East and Siberia development. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has held five summits with President Vladimir Putin since his swearing-in in December 2012.

Yet the efforts came to naught when Tokyo joined the anti-Russia sanctions ― under pressure from Washington, its top ally and security provider, and as a member of the Group of 7 major economies.

Abe has yet to decide whether he will take part in the celebration.

A growing number of Seoul officials are inclined to decline the invitation, though they say for the time being that no decision has been made and all related factors will be taken into account.

Park’s attendance, they say, would only grant Kim a diplomatic coup and increase Moscow’s leverage in the face of icy relations between Pyongyang and Beijing. In addition, a summit held on the margins of a multilateral conference would be less likely to produce substantive results.

“She should not be there, all the more so if Kim Jong-un is coming ― he will be a scene-stealer, attracting all the international media attention,” a senior official said, asking for anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

“But we need to continue efforts to better Russian ties such as through the Rajin-Khasan project,” he added, referring to the fledgling initiative to refurbish a port city and railroad near the North Korea-Russia border.

Another official said, “There would be few incentives that we could gain from her trip. … And Moscow doesn’t seem to be the best place for the leaders of the two Koreas to meet for the first time.”

Some experts argue that Park should go, not just for talks with the young leader, but to prevent the current situation from shaping up like the timeworn contest between South Korea, the U.S. and Japan and North Korea, China and Russia.

Given Beijing’s aloofness toward Pyongyang, Moscow’s efforts could expedite not only her “Eurasia Initiative” but also inter-Korean rapprochement and possibly the resumption of the six-nation denuclearization talks, they note.

“I think it is humiliating (for South Korea) to follow orders from across the ocean and to not pursue its own interests ― relations with the North ― and lose a chance for an inter-Korean summit on a neutral soil,” Georgy Toloraya, director of Korean programs at the Institute of Economy at the Russian Academy of Science, said in an email interview with The Korea Herald.

“I think what Russia is doing is aimed at helping South Korea to improve relations with North Korea and get back to reconciliation process.”

North Korea, for its part, is realigning its old relationships with China and Russia, after years of oscillating between the two patrons according to its interests following the Cold War era.

Many experts assess that Pyongyang’s ties with Beijing are at a post-Cold War low, chiefly driven by the Kim regime’s tests of a long-range missile and then a nuclear device just a few months ahead of President Xi Jinping’s inauguration. Then the young ruler executed Jang Song-thaek, his uncle and the country’s second-most influential man, who had built up political and business ties with China.

Xi was the first Chinese leader to visit Seoul before Pyongyang.

“While trying to work out its own salvation given frosty ties with China, North Korea is leaning toward Russia,” Ko Jae-nam, a professor of European and African studies at the state-run Korea National Diplomatic Academy, wrote in a paper released Thursday.

“Russia is also seeking to expand its influence over the peninsula by enhancing North Korea relations, which in fact has paid off to a considerable extent. If Kim Jong-un indeed accepts the invitation and attends the May ceremony, which I believe he quite likely will, it will trigger repercussions in relations between the two Koreas and their respective ties with Russia.”

Iverson said “win-win plans” for three-party rail or pipeline projects would have a positive impact. But their success would require strenuous behind-the-scenes negotiations, and Seoul would need to step up diplomacy efforts given the current tension between the U.S. and Russia.

“Washington knows that South Korea has been trying for years to get a pipeline and a railroad thorough North Korea connecting itself with Russia. In traveling to Moscow, President Park and her delegation may refer to economic self-interest. This is no surprise to the U.S.,” he said.

“It is obviously not an opportune time to symbolically support Russia or to emphasize a growing friendship. Putin has never been politically weaker domestically.”

By Shin Hyon-hee (heeshin@heraldcorp.com)